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icon for AI在2026年贏得IMO金牌？
科技·AI

AI在2026年贏得IMO金牌？

icon for AI在2026年贏得IMO金牌？
科技·AI

AI在2026年贏得IMO金牌？

1月 1, 2027

1月 1, 2027

是

13% 機率
Polymarket

$10,148 交易量

是

13% 機率
Polymarket

$10,148 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".**Strong trader consensus on "No" at 87% stems primarily from the market's narrow resolution criteria tied to the IMO Grand Challenge and AIMO prize, which have not yet been formally awarded despite July 2026 breakthroughs.** Multiple frontier large language models, including RedNote's dots-note-3.0 and Huawei's Celia, received official IMO grading of perfect 42/42 scores on the Shanghai problems, while others like GPT-5.6 variants and Claude models matched or approached gold thresholds in verified runs. Open-weight systems such as DeepSeek V4 Flash also cleared the 29-point gold line at minimal cost. These results mark rapid progress in rigorous proof-based mathematical reasoning, yet traders discount them due to requirements for fully autonomous, no-tool or standardized challenge conditions that remain unmet as of late August. Key upcoming catalysts include any official Grand Challenge announcements or AIMO prize decisions before year-end, which could still shift odds if criteria align.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
交易量
$10,148
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".**Strong trader consensus on "No" at 87% stems primarily from the market's narrow resolution criteria tied to the IMO Grand Challenge and AIMO prize, which have not yet been formally awarded despite July 2026 breakthroughs.** Multiple frontier large language models, including RedNote's dots-note-3.0 and Huawei's Celia, received official IMO grading of perfect 42/42 scores on the Shanghai problems, while others like GPT-5.6 variants and Claude models matched or approached gold thresholds in verified runs. Open-weight systems such as DeepSeek V4 Flash also cleared the 29-point gold line at minimal cost. These results mark rapid progress in rigorous proof-based mathematical reasoning, yet traders discount them due to requirements for fully autonomous, no-tool or standardized challenge conditions that remain unmet as of late August. Key upcoming catalysts include any official Grand Challenge announcements or AIMO prize decisions before year-end, which could still shift odds if criteria align.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
交易量
$10,148
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".

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警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"AI在2026年贏得IMO金牌？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "人工智慧在2026年贏得國際數學奧林匹克金牌？" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 13¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "AI在2026年贏得IMO金牌？" has generated $10.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "AI在2026年贏得IMO金牌？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "AI在2026年贏得IMO金牌？" is "人工智慧在2026年贏得國際數學奧林匹克金牌？" at 13%, meaning the market assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "AI在2026年贏得IMO金牌？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.