OpenAI’s aggressive pursuit of independence drives the 95.9% market-implied probability against acquisition before 2027. The company completed a $122 billion round at an $852 billion valuation in March 2026, followed by a $7 billion employee tender at the same price, while confidentially filing for an IPO with the SEC in June. Leadership has signaled a potential 2027 listing to reach or exceed $1 trillion, supported by renegotiated Microsoft terms that cap revenue sharing and preserve flexibility. Recent acquisitions of developer tools like Astral and infrastructure firms like Ona further position OpenAI as a consolidator rather than a target. Although an unexpected strategic bid or regulatory delay to its IPO could theoretically intervene, trader consensus reflects the structural momentum toward standalone public status.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
4% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
4% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.
An announced agreement between OpenAI and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Sam Altman and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s aggressive pursuit of independence drives the 95.9% market-implied probability against acquisition before 2027. The company completed a $122 billion round at an $852 billion valuation in March 2026, followed by a $7 billion employee tender at the same price, while confidentially filing for an IPO with the SEC in June. Leadership has signaled a potential 2027 listing to reach or exceed $1 trillion, supported by renegotiated Microsoft terms that cap revenue sharing and preserve flexibility. Recent acquisitions of developer tools like Astral and infrastructure firms like Ona further position OpenAI as a consolidator rather than a target. Although an unexpected strategic bid or regulatory delay to its IPO could theoretically intervene, trader consensus reflects the structural momentum toward standalone public status.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.
An announced agreement between OpenAI and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Sam Altman and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.
An announced agreement between OpenAI and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Sam Altman and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 5:06 PM ET
交易量
$4,599结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:06 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.
An announced agreement between OpenAI and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Sam Altman and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s aggressive pursuit of independence drives the 95.9% market-implied probability against acquisition before 2027. The company completed a $122 billion round at an $852 billion valuation in March 2026, followed by a $7 billion employee tender at the same price, while confidentially filing for an IPO with the SEC in June. Leadership has signaled a potential 2027 listing to reach or exceed $1 trillion, supported by renegotiated Microsoft terms that cap revenue sharing and preserve flexibility. Recent acquisitions of developer tools like Astral and infrastructure firms like Ona further position OpenAI as a consolidator rather than a target. Although an unexpected strategic bid or regulatory delay to its IPO could theoretically intervene, trader consensus reflects the structural momentum toward standalone public status.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.
An announced agreement between OpenAI and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Sam Altman and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.
An announced agreement between OpenAI and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Sam Altman and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$4,599结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:06 PM ETOpenAI’s aggressive pursuit of independence drives the 95.9% market-implied probability against acquisition before 2027. The company completed a $122 billion round at an $852 billion valuation in March 2026, followed by a $7 billion employee tender at the same price, while confidentially filing for an IPO with the SEC in June. Leadership has signaled a potential 2027 listing to reach or exceed $1 trillion, supported by renegotiated Microsoft terms that cap revenue sharing and preserve flexibility. Recent acquisitions of developer tools like Astral and infrastructure firms like Ona further position OpenAI as a consolidator rather than a target. Although an unexpected strategic bid or regulatory delay to its IPO could theoretically intervene, trader consensus reflects the structural momentum toward standalone public status.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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