Meta’s recent August 2026 releases of Muse Spark 1.2 and the open-weight Muse Glimmer 30B agent model have driven the 98.1% market-implied odds that it ranks as the third-best AI lab by month-end. These updates, building on Muse Spark 1.1’s competitive benchmarks, have narrowed the gap behind Anthropic and OpenAI leaders while Google’s Gemini models lag in intelligence and agent indices. Traders view Meta’s combination of frontier capabilities, large context windows, and open-weight distribution as solidifying its position over Google, Alibaba, and others. A last-minute Google capability jump or resolution criteria emphasizing safety scores over raw performance could still alter the outcome before the August 31 close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Meta 98.1%
谷歌 2.4%
OpenAI 1.3%
阿里巴巴 <1%
$81,980 交易量
$81,980 交易量
2026-08-31
Meta
98%
谷歌
2%
OpenAI
1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
亚马逊
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
百度
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
小米
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
英伟达
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
腾讯
<1%
微软
<1%
Meta 98.1%
谷歌 2.4%
OpenAI 1.3%
阿里巴巴 <1%
$81,980 交易量
$81,980 交易量
2026-08-31
Meta
$21,293 交易量
98%
谷歌
$14,685 交易量
2%
OpenAI
$3,921 交易量
1%
阿里巴巴
$8,848 交易量
<1%
SpaceXAI
$3,416 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,154 交易量
<1%
亚马逊
$659 交易量
<1%
Anthropic
$4,912 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$3,062 交易量
<1%
百度
$3,771 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$3,470 交易量
<1%
小米
$2,263 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$911 交易量
<1%
英伟达
$706 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$504 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$912 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$671 交易量
<1%
腾讯
$1,102 交易量
<1%
微软
$3,731 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta’s recent August 2026 releases of Muse Spark 1.2 and the open-weight Muse Glimmer 30B agent model have driven the 98.1% market-implied odds that it ranks as the third-best AI lab by month-end. These updates, building on Muse Spark 1.1’s competitive benchmarks, have narrowed the gap behind Anthropic and OpenAI leaders while Google’s Gemini models lag in intelligence and agent indices. Traders view Meta’s combination of frontier capabilities, large context windows, and open-weight distribution as solidifying its position over Google, Alibaba, and others. A last-minute Google capability jump or resolution criteria emphasizing safety scores over raw performance could still alter the outcome before the August 31 close.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 20, 2026, 8:50 PM ET
交易量
$81,980结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 8:50 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta’s recent August 2026 releases of Muse Spark 1.2 and the open-weight Muse Glimmer 30B agent model have driven the 98.1% market-implied odds that it ranks as the third-best AI lab by month-end. These updates, building on Muse Spark 1.1’s competitive benchmarks, have narrowed the gap behind Anthropic and OpenAI leaders while Google’s Gemini models lag in intelligence and agent indices. Traders view Meta’s combination of frontier capabilities, large context windows, and open-weight distribution as solidifying its position over Google, Alibaba, and others. A last-minute Google capability jump or resolution criteria emphasizing safety scores over raw performance could still alter the outcome before the August 31 close.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$81,980结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 8:50 PM ETMeta’s recent August 2026 releases of Muse Spark 1.2 and the open-weight Muse Glimmer 30B agent model have driven the 98.1% market-implied odds that it ranks as the third-best AI lab by month-end. These updates, building on Muse Spark 1.1’s competitive benchmarks, have narrowed the gap behind Anthropic and OpenAI leaders while Google’s Gemini models lag in intelligence and agent indices. Traders view Meta’s combination of frontier capabilities, large context windows, and open-weight distribution as solidifying its position over Google, Alibaba, and others. A last-minute Google capability jump or resolution criteria emphasizing safety scores over raw performance could still alter the outcome before the August 31 close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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