Texas's 4th congressional district maintains a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+12 following the 2025 redistricting, with Republican candidates consistently securing large margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured renomination with over 80 percent in the March 2026 Republican primary and faces Democratic nominee Jason Pearce in the November general election. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican across outlets, reflecting limited Democratic fundraising and the absence of competitive polling. Trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 94.5 percent tracks these structural advantages and primary results. A late-breaking scandal, unusually low Republican turnout, or major national political shift could narrow the margin, though historical patterns indicate such changes would require substantial movement to alter the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$39,977 交易量
$39,977 交易量
2026-11-02
帕特·法伦（共和党）
95%
杰森·皮尔斯（民主党）
6%
$39,977 交易量
$39,977 交易量
2026-11-02
帕特·法伦（共和党）
$21,766 交易量
95%
杰森·皮尔斯（民主党）
$18,211 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 4th congressional district maintains a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+12 following the 2025 redistricting, with Republican candidates consistently securing large margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured renomination with over 80 percent in the March 2026 Republican primary and faces Democratic nominee Jason Pearce in the November general election. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican across outlets, reflecting limited Democratic fundraising and the absence of competitive polling. Trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 94.5 percent tracks these structural advantages and primary results. A late-breaking scandal, unusually low Republican turnout, or major national political shift could narrow the margin, though historical patterns indicate such changes would require substantial movement to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$39,977结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 4th congressional district maintains a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+12 following the 2025 redistricting, with Republican candidates consistently securing large margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured renomination with over 80 percent in the March 2026 Republican primary and faces Democratic nominee Jason Pearce in the November general election. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican across outlets, reflecting limited Democratic fundraising and the absence of competitive polling. Trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 94.5 percent tracks these structural advantages and primary results. A late-breaking scandal, unusually low Republican turnout, or major national political shift could narrow the margin, though historical patterns indicate such changes would require substantial movement to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$39,977结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETTexas's 4th congressional district maintains a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+12 following the 2025 redistricting, with Republican candidates consistently securing large margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured renomination with over 80 percent in the March 2026 Republican primary and faces Democratic nominee Jason Pearce in the November general election. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican across outlets, reflecting limited Democratic fundraising and the absence of competitive polling. Trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 94.5 percent tracks these structural advantages and primary results. A late-breaking scandal, unusually low Republican turnout, or major national political shift could narrow the margin, though historical patterns indicate such changes would require substantial movement to alter the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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