Redistricting after the 2025 Texas legislative session transformed the 32nd District into a solidly Republican seat with an R+8 Partisan Voter Index, shifting it from a Democratic-leaning urban district to one stretching into conservative East Texas suburbs. This structural change underpins trader consensus favoring Republican nominee Jace Yarbrough at 89 percent. Yarbrough secured the nomination after leading the March primary and advancing when Ryan Binkley withdrew before the runoff; he holds a Trump endorsement, superior fundraising exceeding $865,000 through June, and a background as an Air Force veteran and attorney. Democratic nominee Dan Barrios, who won his March primary, trails with far lower resources and faces the district's partisan math in the November general election. Recent campaign finance filings and race ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball reinforce the competitive gap without indicating shifts in the final weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$34,640 交易量
$34,640 交易量
2026-11-03
贾斯·亚布勒（共和党）
89%
丹·巴里奥斯（民主党）
11%
$34,640 交易量
$34,640 交易量
2026-11-03
贾斯·亚布勒（共和党）
$29,931 交易量
89%
丹·巴里奥斯（民主党）
$4,709 交易量
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting after the 2025 Texas legislative session transformed the 32nd District into a solidly Republican seat with an R+8 Partisan Voter Index, shifting it from a Democratic-leaning urban district to one stretching into conservative East Texas suburbs. This structural change underpins trader consensus favoring Republican nominee Jace Yarbrough at 89 percent. Yarbrough secured the nomination after leading the March primary and advancing when Ryan Binkley withdrew before the runoff; he holds a Trump endorsement, superior fundraising exceeding $865,000 through June, and a background as an Air Force veteran and attorney. Democratic nominee Dan Barrios, who won his March primary, trails with far lower resources and faces the district's partisan math in the November general election. Recent campaign finance filings and race ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball reinforce the competitive gap without indicating shifts in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
交易量
$34,640结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting after the 2025 Texas legislative session transformed the 32nd District into a solidly Republican seat with an R+8 Partisan Voter Index, shifting it from a Democratic-leaning urban district to one stretching into conservative East Texas suburbs. This structural change underpins trader consensus favoring Republican nominee Jace Yarbrough at 89 percent. Yarbrough secured the nomination after leading the March primary and advancing when Ryan Binkley withdrew before the runoff; he holds a Trump endorsement, superior fundraising exceeding $865,000 through June, and a background as an Air Force veteran and attorney. Democratic nominee Dan Barrios, who won his March primary, trails with far lower resources and faces the district's partisan math in the November general election. Recent campaign finance filings and race ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball reinforce the competitive gap without indicating shifts in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$34,640结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETRedistricting after the 2025 Texas legislative session transformed the 32nd District into a solidly Republican seat with an R+8 Partisan Voter Index, shifting it from a Democratic-leaning urban district to one stretching into conservative East Texas suburbs. This structural change underpins trader consensus favoring Republican nominee Jace Yarbrough at 89 percent. Yarbrough secured the nomination after leading the March primary and advancing when Ryan Binkley withdrew before the runoff; he holds a Trump endorsement, superior fundraising exceeding $865,000 through June, and a background as an Air Force veteran and attorney. Democratic nominee Dan Barrios, who won his March primary, trails with far lower resources and faces the district's partisan math in the November general election. Recent campaign finance filings and race ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball reinforce the competitive gap without indicating shifts in the final weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题