**Trader consensus strongly favors "No" (90.5% implied probability) because the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline—derived from remaining carbon budgets and observed global CO₂ emissions trends—updates infrequently, typically on an annual cycle or quarterly at most, with the most recent projection (as of March 2026) pointing to a July 2029 threshold.** No major revisions to emissions rates, carbon budget estimates, or warming trajectories have occurred since the last documented update, and the underlying methodology (drawing from Global Carbon Project data and IPCC-aligned budgets) shows stability amid steady ~40 GtCO₂ annual emissions. Recent reports through mid-2026, including human-induced warming assessments reaching ~1.37°C by 2025 and remaining budgets around 130 GtCO₂ for a 50% chance of limiting to 1.5°C, have not produced the kind of sharp downward revision in emissions or upward adjustment in allowable budget needed to shift the displayed deadline before year-end. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the clock include a surprise late-2026 data release (e.g., revised 2025–2026 emissions inventories or a new carbon budget assessment) showing accelerated decarbonization or a lower effective remaining budget, though such shifts are rare outside scheduled annual cycles and would require substantial new observational evidence. The market reflects traders' assessment that the next meaningful update window lies beyond December 31, 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于10% 概率
$12,993 交易量
$12,993 交易量
2026-12-31
10% 概率
$12,993 交易量
$12,993 交易量
2026-12-31
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.**Trader consensus strongly favors "No" (90.5% implied probability) because the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline—derived from remaining carbon budgets and observed global CO₂ emissions trends—updates infrequently, typically on an annual cycle or quarterly at most, with the most recent projection (as of March 2026) pointing to a July 2029 threshold.**
No major revisions to emissions rates, carbon budget estimates, or warming trajectories have occurred since the last documented update, and the underlying methodology (drawing from Global Carbon Project data and IPCC-aligned budgets) shows stability amid steady ~40 GtCO₂ annual emissions. Recent reports through mid-2026, including human-induced warming assessments reaching ~1.37°C by 2025 and remaining budgets around 130 GtCO₂ for a 50% chance of limiting to 1.5°C, have not produced the kind of sharp downward revision in emissions or upward adjustment in allowable budget needed to shift the displayed deadline before year-end.
Realistic scenarios that could still alter the clock include a surprise late-2026 data release (e.g., revised 2025–2026 emissions inventories or a new carbon budget assessment) showing accelerated decarbonization or a lower effective remaining budget, though such shifts are rare outside scheduled annual cycles and would require substantial new observational evidence. The market reflects traders' assessment that the next meaningful update window lies beyond December 31, 2026.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
市场开放时间： Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
交易量
$12,993结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETEach market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.**Trader consensus strongly favors "No" (90.5% implied probability) because the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline—derived from remaining carbon budgets and observed global CO₂ emissions trends—updates infrequently, typically on an annual cycle or quarterly at most, with the most recent projection (as of March 2026) pointing to a July 2029 threshold.**
No major revisions to emissions rates, carbon budget estimates, or warming trajectories have occurred since the last documented update, and the underlying methodology (drawing from Global Carbon Project data and IPCC-aligned budgets) shows stability amid steady ~40 GtCO₂ annual emissions. Recent reports through mid-2026, including human-induced warming assessments reaching ~1.37°C by 2025 and remaining budgets around 130 GtCO₂ for a 50% chance of limiting to 1.5°C, have not produced the kind of sharp downward revision in emissions or upward adjustment in allowable budget needed to shift the displayed deadline before year-end.
Realistic scenarios that could still alter the clock include a surprise late-2026 data release (e.g., revised 2025–2026 emissions inventories or a new carbon budget assessment) showing accelerated decarbonization or a lower effective remaining budget, though such shifts are rare outside scheduled annual cycles and would require substantial new observational evidence. The market reflects traders' assessment that the next meaningful update window lies beyond December 31, 2026.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
交易量
$12,993结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET**Trader consensus strongly favors "No" (90.5% implied probability) because the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline—derived from remaining carbon budgets and observed global CO₂ emissions trends—updates infrequently, typically on an annual cycle or quarterly at most, with the most recent projection (as of March 2026) pointing to a July 2029 threshold.** No major revisions to emissions rates, carbon budget estimates, or warming trajectories have occurred since the last documented update, and the underlying methodology (drawing from Global Carbon Project data and IPCC-aligned budgets) shows stability amid steady ~40 GtCO₂ annual emissions. Recent reports through mid-2026, including human-induced warming assessments reaching ~1.37°C by 2025 and remaining budgets around 130 GtCO₂ for a 50% chance of limiting to 1.5°C, have not produced the kind of sharp downward revision in emissions or upward adjustment in allowable budget needed to shift the displayed deadline before year-end. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the clock include a surprise late-2026 data release (e.g., revised 2025–2026 emissions inventories or a new carbon budget assessment) showing accelerated decarbonization or a lower effective remaining budget, though such shifts are rare outside scheduled annual cycles and would require substantial new observational evidence. The market reflects traders' assessment that the next meaningful update window lies beyond December 31, 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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