Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside a stronger-than-expected August jobs report adding 162,000 positions, has lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to roughly 52% on Polymarket. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish emphasis on price stability, combined with three dissents favoring tighter policy at the July meeting and nine of 19 officials projecting at least one increase by year-end in June projections, reinforces trader consensus for potential tightening. The August CPI release on September 11 and any further labor or energy-price data will be key near-term catalysts shaping the rate path amid ongoing supply shocks.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডFed rate hike by...?
Fed rate hike by...?
$2,848,796 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
September Meeting
50%
October Meeting
62%
$2,848,796 Vol.
September Meeting
$1,269,036 Vol.
50%
October Meeting
$619,760 Vol.
62%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside a stronger-than-expected August jobs report adding 162,000 positions, has lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to roughly 52% on Polymarket. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish emphasis on price stability, combined with three dissents favoring tighter policy at the July meeting and nine of 19 officials projecting at least one increase by year-end in June projections, reinforces trader consensus for potential tightening. The August CPI release on September 11 and any further labor or energy-price data will be key near-term catalysts shaping the rate path amid ongoing supply shocks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
ভলিউম
$2,848,796শেষ তারিখ
Oct 29, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside a stronger-than-expected August jobs report adding 162,000 positions, has lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to roughly 52% on Polymarket. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish emphasis on price stability, combined with three dissents favoring tighter policy at the July meeting and nine of 19 officials projecting at least one increase by year-end in June projections, reinforces trader consensus for potential tightening. The August CPI release on September 11 and any further labor or energy-price data will be key near-term catalysts shaping the rate path amid ongoing supply shocks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ভলিউম
$2,848,796শেষ তারিখ
Oct 29, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside a stronger-than-expected August jobs report adding 162,000 positions, has lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to roughly 52% on Polymarket. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish emphasis on price stability, combined with three dissents favoring tighter policy at the July meeting and nine of 19 officials projecting at least one increase by year-end in June projections, reinforces trader consensus for potential tightening. The August CPI release on September 11 and any further labor or energy-price data will be key near-term catalysts shaping the rate path amid ongoing supply shocks.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা