Recent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, have kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% through the June and July FOMC meetings despite solid GDP growth and a stable labor market. The June dot plot lifted the 2026 median rate projection to 3.8%, with nine participants seeing at least one hike, while the July decision passed 9–3 with three votes favoring a 25-basis-point increase. This path positions “Other” as the leading outcome at 57.5% by embedding residual September-hike risk, while Pause–Pause–Pause at 40% reflects trader expectations that incoming data will not yet justify tightening before the September 15–16 meeting. A cut sequence remains a distant 0.7% tail given limited disinflation progress.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOther 57%
Pause–Pause–Pause 39%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$815,312 Vol.
$815,312 Vol.
15 sep 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
39%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
57%
Other 57%
Pause–Pause–Pause 39%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$815,312 Vol.
$815,312 Vol.
15 sep 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$314,218 Vol.
39%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$95,060 Vol.
1%
Other
$350,158 Vol.
57%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, have kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% through the June and July FOMC meetings despite solid GDP growth and a stable labor market. The June dot plot lifted the 2026 median rate projection to 3.8%, with nine participants seeing at least one hike, while the July decision passed 9–3 with three votes favoring a 25-basis-point increase. This path positions “Other” as the leading outcome at 57.5% by embedding residual September-hike risk, while Pause–Pause–Pause at 40% reflects trader expectations that incoming data will not yet justify tightening before the September 15–16 meeting. A cut sequence remains a distant 0.7% tail given limited disinflation progress.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volumen
$815,312Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, have kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% through the June and July FOMC meetings despite solid GDP growth and a stable labor market. The June dot plot lifted the 2026 median rate projection to 3.8%, with nine participants seeing at least one hike, while the July decision passed 9–3 with three votes favoring a 25-basis-point increase. This path positions “Other” as the leading outcome at 57.5% by embedding residual September-hike risk, while Pause–Pause–Pause at 40% reflects trader expectations that incoming data will not yet justify tightening before the September 15–16 meeting. A cut sequence remains a distant 0.7% tail given limited disinflation progress.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$815,312Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, have kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% through the June and July FOMC meetings despite solid GDP growth and a stable labor market. The June dot plot lifted the 2026 median rate projection to 3.8%, with nine participants seeing at least one hike, while the July decision passed 9–3 with three votes favoring a 25-basis-point increase. This path positions “Other” as the leading outcome at 57.5% by embedding residual September-hike risk, while Pause–Pause–Pause at 40% reflects trader expectations that incoming data will not yet justify tightening before the September 15–16 meeting. A cut sequence remains a distant 0.7% tail given limited disinflation progress.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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