Recent strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, alongside hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole emphasizing “work to do” on inflation, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to roughly 58-64%. The federal funds target remains 3.50-3.75% after five consecutive holds, with headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July amid energy-driven pressures. Economist polls still favor a hold, but primary-dealer views are split and futures price two hikes by year-end. The September 11 CPI release and any fresh labor-market signals will be key swing factors ahead of the decision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$2,924,288 Vol.
8 dic 2026
Reunión de septiembre
54%
Reunión de octubre
66%
$2,924,288 Vol.
Reunión de septiembre
$1,336,112 Vol.
54%
Reunión de octubre
$628,176 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, alongside hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole emphasizing “work to do” on inflation, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to roughly 58-64%. The federal funds target remains 3.50-3.75% after five consecutive holds, with headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July amid energy-driven pressures. Economist polls still favor a hold, but primary-dealer views are split and futures price two hikes by year-end. The September 11 CPI release and any fresh labor-market signals will be key swing factors ahead of the decision.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volumen
$2,924,288Fecha de finalización
29 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, alongside hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole emphasizing “work to do” on inflation, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to roughly 58-64%. The federal funds target remains 3.50-3.75% after five consecutive holds, with headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July amid energy-driven pressures. Economist polls still favor a hold, but primary-dealer views are split and futures price two hikes by year-end. The September 11 CPI release and any fresh labor-market signals will be key swing factors ahead of the decision.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$2,924,288Fecha de finalización
29 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, alongside hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole emphasizing “work to do” on inflation, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to roughly 58-64%. The federal funds target remains 3.50-3.75% after five consecutive holds, with headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July amid energy-driven pressures. Economist polls still favor a hold, but primary-dealer views are split and futures price two hikes by year-end. The September 11 CPI release and any fresh labor-market signals will be key swing factors ahead of the decision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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