Market-implied odds reflect strong trader consensus that President Trump will not attempt to remove Kevin Warsh from any Federal Reserve role in 2026, driven by the absence of policy friction and Warsh’s alignment with administration goals on inflation and growth. Powell’s term ends in May 2026, positioning Warsh as a potential nominee rather than a target, with recent White House statements emphasizing continuity in monetary policy. Legal protections for Fed independence and historical precedent further reduce removal risk. Upcoming FOMC meetings and any nomination timeline remain the main near-term variables, though tail risks such as a sharp shift in economic data or personal conflict could still introduce volatility.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado3% probabilidad
$11,965 Vol.
$11,965 Vol.
31 dic 2026
3% probabilidad
$11,965 Vol.
$11,965 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Market-implied odds reflect strong trader consensus that President Trump will not attempt to remove Kevin Warsh from any Federal Reserve role in 2026, driven by the absence of policy friction and Warsh’s alignment with administration goals on inflation and growth. Powell’s term ends in May 2026, positioning Warsh as a potential nominee rather than a target, with recent White House statements emphasizing continuity in monetary policy. Legal protections for Fed independence and historical precedent further reduce removal risk. Upcoming FOMC meetings and any nomination timeline remain the main near-term variables, though tail risks such as a sharp shift in economic data or personal conflict could still introduce volatility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Volumen
$11,965Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Market-implied odds reflect strong trader consensus that President Trump will not attempt to remove Kevin Warsh from any Federal Reserve role in 2026, driven by the absence of policy friction and Warsh’s alignment with administration goals on inflation and growth. Powell’s term ends in May 2026, positioning Warsh as a potential nominee rather than a target, with recent White House statements emphasizing continuity in monetary policy. Legal protections for Fed independence and historical precedent further reduce removal risk. Upcoming FOMC meetings and any nomination timeline remain the main near-term variables, though tail risks such as a sharp shift in economic data or personal conflict could still introduce volatility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$11,965Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Market-implied odds reflect strong trader consensus that President Trump will not attempt to remove Kevin Warsh from any Federal Reserve role in 2026, driven by the absence of policy friction and Warsh’s alignment with administration goals on inflation and growth. Powell’s term ends in May 2026, positioning Warsh as a potential nominee rather than a target, with recent White House statements emphasizing continuity in monetary policy. Legal protections for Fed independence and historical precedent further reduce removal risk. Upcoming FOMC meetings and any nomination timeline remain the main near-term variables, though tail risks such as a sharp shift in economic data or personal conflict could still introduce volatility.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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