This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for September 2026, currently scheduled for September 15-16. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no September meeting takes place by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for October 2026, currently scheduled for October 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no October meeting takes place by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for March 2026, currently scheduled for March 17-18. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no March meeting takes place by April 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for April 2026, currently scheduled for April 28-29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no April meeting takes place by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for June 2026, currently scheduled for June 16-17. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no June meeting takes place by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for July 2026, currently scheduled for July 28-29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no July meeting takes place by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its July 29, 2026 meeting, backed by a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a hike, underscores the primary driver behind limited expectations for near-term cuts. Headline CPI stood at 3.4% year-over-year in July, with core inflation at 2.5%, still well above the 2% target amid energy price pressures from Middle East conflicts. Solid economic growth, strong productivity, and a stable labor market have reinforced the Committee's commitment to price stability under Chair Kevin Warsh, shifting market-implied odds toward possible September tightening rather than easing. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which includes updated projections, and the August CPI release on September 11 represent key near-term catalysts that could influence trader positioning on any 2026 rate path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its July 29, 2026 meeting, backed by a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a hike, underscores the primary driver behind limited expectations for near-term cuts. Headline CPI stood at 3.4% year-over-year in July, with core inflation at 2.5%, still well above the 2% target amid energy price pressures from Middle East conflicts. Solid economic growth, strong productivity, and a stable labor market have reinforced the Committee's commitment to price stability under Chair Kevin Warsh, shifting market-implied odds toward possible September tightening rather than easing. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which includes updated projections, and the August CPI release on September 11 represent key near-term catalysts that could influence trader positioning on any 2026 rate path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Aug 30 2026
Federal Reserve Maintains Steady Rates Through August 2026 Amid Mixed Economic Signals
December Meeting drops to 11%5%
The Fed continued to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% through August 2026, reflecting a cautious approach amid mixed inflation and labor market data. This ongoing pause contributed to the decline in market expectations for rate cuts in the December meeting window.
Jul 29 2026
Federal Reserve holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% for fifth consecutive meeting
December Meeting drops to 14%6%
The FOMC voted 9-3 to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in July 2026, reflecting ongoing economic stability and inflation concerns. Markets priced in potential rate hikes later in the year, signaling a shift away from expectations of cuts.
Jul 29 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July meeting
December Meeting drops to 14%6%
At the July 29, 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve again held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with a 9-3 vote. Some members preferred rate hikes, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about inflation and employment. The Fed signaled a higher bar for future rate changes, maintaining a cautious stance amid mixed economic data.
Jul 28 2026
Federal Reserve maintains rates at July meeting with dissenting votes for hike
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% at the July 28-29 meeting, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point increase. The committee reaffirmed its cautious stance amid ongoing inflation concerns.
Jul 28 2026
Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged at July 2026 FOMC meeting despite dissent
December Meeting drops to 14%6%
At the July 28-29 meeting, the Fed maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point hike. The decision reflected ongoing concerns about inflation and labor market strength, further dampening expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
Jul 14 2026
Chairman Warsh Presents Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress
December Meeting dips to 12%2%
Chairman Warsh presented the semiannual Monetary Policy Report, outlining the Fed’s views on economic conditions and monetary policy. This report influences market sentiment and investment strategies by providing insights into the Fed’s policy direction.
Jul 9 2026
Federal Reserve Announces Leadership and Objectives of Task Forces to Advance Monetary Policy
December Meeting drops to 14%7%
The Federal Reserve announced the formation of task forces led by external advisers to improve monetary policy conduct. This initiative reflects the Fed's commitment to price stability and maximum employment, signaling ongoing efforts to refine policy tools amid economic uncertainties.
Jun 17 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at June 16-17 meeting amid inflation concerns
December Meeting rises to 28%4%
At the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, citing ongoing elevated inflation and a stable labor market. The Fed's cautious stance and data-dependent approach kept market expectations for rate cuts low during this period.
Jun 16 2026
Fed officials signal cautious approach amid mixed economic data and inflation concerns
December Meeting drops to 20%11%
Fed officials expressed a cautious stance on further rate cuts during mid-2026, highlighting mixed signals from labor market data and persistent inflation above target. This contributed to a decline in market expectations for rate cuts at upcoming meetings.
Jun 16 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at June 2026 FOMC meeting amid rising inflation
December Meeting dips to 19%4%
The Fed held rates steady at the June 16-17 meeting, with new Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing the importance of data and signaling no immediate cuts despite inflation pressures. This reinforced market expectations for a pause in rate cuts through mid-2026.
May 12 2026
April CPI surges to 3.8%, dashing hopes for Fed rate cuts in 2026
December Meeting dips to 11%4%
April's Consumer Price Index showed the highest inflation in three years, with broad-based increases including core CPI, leading the Fed to signal no rate cuts in 2026 and pushing market expectations for cuts sharply lower.
May 11 2026
BofA and Goldman Sachs push back Fed rate-cut expectations citing inflation and jobs data
December Meeting plunges to 11%16%
In May 2026, major brokerages revised their forecasts, expecting the Fed to hold rates steady for the remainder of the year due to elevated inflation and a strong labor market, pushing anticipated rate cuts to late 2026 or 2027. This dampened market expectations for cuts in the analyzed window.
May 11 2026
President Trump publicly urges Federal Reserve to convene emergency meeting to cut rates immediately
December Meeting plunges to 47%15%
Ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting, former President Donald Trump called for an emergency Fed meeting to cut interest rates, increasing political pressure on the Fed. Despite this, the Fed maintained its independent stance and did not cut rates at the meeting, contributing to market uncertainty.
May 4 2026
Federal Reserve Signals Policy Direction Following May 2026 Meeting
December Meeting plunges to 47%17%
The Fed's May 2026 meeting reinforced an adaptive monetary policy stance, emphasizing data dependency amid ongoing inflation concerns and labor market strength. Markets reacted to the Fed's cautious signals, which tempered expectations for imminent rate cuts.
Apr 29 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid internal dissent
December Meeting rises to 63%1%
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% on April 29, 2026, matching market expectations but revealing rare internal disagreement with four officials dissenting. Chair Jerome Powell confirmed his upcoming exit, adding uncertainty. The decision reflected caution amid persistent inflation and mixed economic signals.
Apr 28 2026
Federal Reserve maintains rates at April 2026 FOMC meeting amid inflation and labor market concerns
December Meeting plunges to 47%15%
At the April 28-29 meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged, citing ongoing inflation above target and a strengthening labor market. The cautious tone and lack of cuts led to further declines in market expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
Mar 18 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at March 2026 FOMC meeting despite calls for cuts
December Meeting plunges to 62%17%
The Fed held rates steady at the March 17-18 meeting, rejecting calls for emergency cuts and maintaining a cautious stance amid mixed economic data and inflation concerns. This decision contributed to a decline in market expectations for rate cuts at upcoming meetings.
Mar 18 2026
FOMC holds rates steady amid rising inflation and economic uncertainty
December Meeting jumps to 27%5%
The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% at the March 18 meeting, with inflation data showing a surge in energy prices due to the Iran war, reinforcing a 'higher-for-longer' rate outlook and diminishing near-term cut expectations.
Mar 18 2026
FOMC Minutes Reveal Majority Support for Rate Hold Amid Solid Economic Expansion
Minutes from the March FOMC meeting showed most members supported holding rates steady, citing solid economic growth and inflation concerns. The minutes also indicated openness to future cuts if inflation progresses toward target, maintaining policy flexibility.
Mar 17 2026
Former President Trump calls for emergency Fed meeting to cut rates immediately
December Meeting plunges to 62%15%
Ahead of the March 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting, former President Donald Trump publicly urged the Federal Reserve to convene an emergency meeting to cut interest rates immediately, increasing political pressure on the Fed. Despite this, the Fed maintained its cautious stance and did not cut rates at this meeting.
Mar 17 2026
FOMC Holds Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% Amid Elevated Inflation and Geopolitical Uncertainty
December Meeting drops to 77%10%
At the March 17-18 meeting, the Federal Reserve voted 11-1 to keep the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, citing elevated inflation and geopolitical risks, particularly the Iran conflict, as reasons to pause further cuts. This reinforced the cautious approach and lowered market expectations for near-term easing.
Mar 17 2026
Federal Reserve Votes 11-1 to Hold Rates Steady at March Meeting Amid Inflation Concerns
October Meeting plunges to 64%15%
The March 2026 FOMC meeting resulted in an 11-1 vote to maintain rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with one dissenting vote favoring a cut. The decision reflected concerns about inflation and geopolitical risks, reinforcing a cautious policy stance and influencing market expectations for rate cuts later in the year.
Mar 17 2026
President Trump calls for emergency Federal Reserve meeting to cut rates immediately
December Meeting drops to 79%8%
Ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting, former President Donald Trump publicly urged the Federal Reserve to convene an emergency meeting and cut rates immediately, increasing political pressure on the Fed. However, the Fed maintained its independent stance and did not cut rates at this meeting.
Mar 17 2026
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Emphasizes Inflation Risks and Labor Market Stability at March Press Conference
October Meeting plunges to 64%15%
Following the March FOMC meeting, Chair Powell highlighted persistent inflation risks and a stable labor market, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts. His remarks tempered market expectations for immediate easing, contributing to the price decline in the October and September meeting options.
Mar 17 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at March FOMC meeting amid Middle East conflict and inflation concerns
December Meeting plunges to 62%17%
The FOMC decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% during the March 17-18 meeting, citing little change in the U.S. macroeconomic outlook despite increased near-term inflation projections and geopolitical tensions. One dissenting vote favored a 25 basis point cut, but the committee overall remained cautious.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for September 2026, currently scheduled for September 15-16. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no September meeting takes place by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for October 2026, currently scheduled for October 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no October meeting takes place by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for March 2026, currently scheduled for March 17-18. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no March meeting takes place by April 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for April 2026, currently scheduled for April 28-29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no April meeting takes place by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for June 2026, currently scheduled for June 16-17. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no June meeting takes place by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for July 2026, currently scheduled for July 28-29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no July meeting takes place by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its July 29, 2026 meeting, backed by a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a hike, underscores the primary driver behind limited expectations for near-term cuts. Headline CPI stood at 3.4% year-over-year in July, with core inflation at 2.5%, still well above the 2% target amid energy price pressures from Middle East conflicts. Solid economic growth, strong productivity, and a stable labor market have reinforced the Committee's commitment to price stability under Chair Kevin Warsh, shifting market-implied odds toward possible September tightening rather than easing. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which includes updated projections, and the August CPI release on September 11 represent key near-term catalysts that could influence trader positioning on any 2026 rate path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its July 29, 2026 meeting, backed by a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a hike, underscores the primary driver behind limited expectations for near-term cuts. Headline CPI stood at 3.4% year-over-year in July, with core inflation at 2.5%, still well above the 2% target amid energy price pressures from Middle East conflicts. Solid economic growth, strong productivity, and a stable labor market have reinforced the Committee's commitment to price stability under Chair Kevin Warsh, shifting market-implied odds toward possible September tightening rather than easing. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which includes updated projections, and the August CPI release on September 11 represent key near-term catalysts that could influence trader positioning on any 2026 rate path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Aug 30 2026
Federal Reserve Maintains Steady Rates Through August 2026 Amid Mixed Economic Signals
December Meeting drops to 11%5%
The Fed continued to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% through August 2026, reflecting a cautious approach amid mixed inflation and labor market data. This ongoing pause contributed to the decline in market expectations for rate cuts in the December meeting window.
Jul 29 2026
Federal Reserve holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% for fifth consecutive meeting
December Meeting drops to 14%6%
The FOMC voted 9-3 to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in July 2026, reflecting ongoing economic stability and inflation concerns. Markets priced in potential rate hikes later in the year, signaling a shift away from expectations of cuts.
Jul 29 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July meeting
December Meeting drops to 14%6%
At the July 29, 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve again held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with a 9-3 vote. Some members preferred rate hikes, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about inflation and employment. The Fed signaled a higher bar for future rate changes, maintaining a cautious stance amid mixed economic data.
Jul 28 2026
Federal Reserve maintains rates at July meeting with dissenting votes for hike
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% at the July 28-29 meeting, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point increase. The committee reaffirmed its cautious stance amid ongoing inflation concerns.
Jul 28 2026
Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged at July 2026 FOMC meeting despite dissent
December Meeting drops to 14%6%
At the July 28-29 meeting, the Fed maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point hike. The decision reflected ongoing concerns about inflation and labor market strength, further dampening expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
Jul 14 2026
Chairman Warsh Presents Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress
December Meeting dips to 12%2%
Chairman Warsh presented the semiannual Monetary Policy Report, outlining the Fed’s views on economic conditions and monetary policy. This report influences market sentiment and investment strategies by providing insights into the Fed’s policy direction.
Jul 9 2026
Federal Reserve Announces Leadership and Objectives of Task Forces to Advance Monetary Policy
December Meeting drops to 14%7%
The Federal Reserve announced the formation of task forces led by external advisers to improve monetary policy conduct. This initiative reflects the Fed's commitment to price stability and maximum employment, signaling ongoing efforts to refine policy tools amid economic uncertainties.
Jun 17 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at June 16-17 meeting amid inflation concerns
December Meeting rises to 28%4%
At the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, citing ongoing elevated inflation and a stable labor market. The Fed's cautious stance and data-dependent approach kept market expectations for rate cuts low during this period.
Jun 16 2026
Fed officials signal cautious approach amid mixed economic data and inflation concerns
December Meeting drops to 20%11%
Fed officials expressed a cautious stance on further rate cuts during mid-2026, highlighting mixed signals from labor market data and persistent inflation above target. This contributed to a decline in market expectations for rate cuts at upcoming meetings.
Jun 16 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at June 2026 FOMC meeting amid rising inflation
December Meeting dips to 19%4%
The Fed held rates steady at the June 16-17 meeting, with new Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing the importance of data and signaling no immediate cuts despite inflation pressures. This reinforced market expectations for a pause in rate cuts through mid-2026.
May 12 2026
April CPI surges to 3.8%, dashing hopes for Fed rate cuts in 2026
December Meeting dips to 11%4%
April's Consumer Price Index showed the highest inflation in three years, with broad-based increases including core CPI, leading the Fed to signal no rate cuts in 2026 and pushing market expectations for cuts sharply lower.
May 11 2026
BofA and Goldman Sachs push back Fed rate-cut expectations citing inflation and jobs data
December Meeting plunges to 11%16%
In May 2026, major brokerages revised their forecasts, expecting the Fed to hold rates steady for the remainder of the year due to elevated inflation and a strong labor market, pushing anticipated rate cuts to late 2026 or 2027. This dampened market expectations for cuts in the analyzed window.
May 11 2026
President Trump publicly urges Federal Reserve to convene emergency meeting to cut rates immediately
December Meeting plunges to 47%15%
Ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting, former President Donald Trump called for an emergency Fed meeting to cut interest rates, increasing political pressure on the Fed. Despite this, the Fed maintained its independent stance and did not cut rates at the meeting, contributing to market uncertainty.
May 4 2026
Federal Reserve Signals Policy Direction Following May 2026 Meeting
December Meeting plunges to 47%17%
The Fed's May 2026 meeting reinforced an adaptive monetary policy stance, emphasizing data dependency amid ongoing inflation concerns and labor market strength. Markets reacted to the Fed's cautious signals, which tempered expectations for imminent rate cuts.
Apr 29 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid internal dissent
December Meeting rises to 63%1%
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% on April 29, 2026, matching market expectations but revealing rare internal disagreement with four officials dissenting. Chair Jerome Powell confirmed his upcoming exit, adding uncertainty. The decision reflected caution amid persistent inflation and mixed economic signals.
Apr 28 2026
Federal Reserve maintains rates at April 2026 FOMC meeting amid inflation and labor market concerns
December Meeting plunges to 47%15%
At the April 28-29 meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged, citing ongoing inflation above target and a strengthening labor market. The cautious tone and lack of cuts led to further declines in market expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
Mar 18 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at March 2026 FOMC meeting despite calls for cuts
December Meeting plunges to 62%17%
The Fed held rates steady at the March 17-18 meeting, rejecting calls for emergency cuts and maintaining a cautious stance amid mixed economic data and inflation concerns. This decision contributed to a decline in market expectations for rate cuts at upcoming meetings.
Mar 18 2026
FOMC holds rates steady amid rising inflation and economic uncertainty
December Meeting jumps to 27%5%
The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% at the March 18 meeting, with inflation data showing a surge in energy prices due to the Iran war, reinforcing a 'higher-for-longer' rate outlook and diminishing near-term cut expectations.
Mar 18 2026
FOMC Minutes Reveal Majority Support for Rate Hold Amid Solid Economic Expansion
Minutes from the March FOMC meeting showed most members supported holding rates steady, citing solid economic growth and inflation concerns. The minutes also indicated openness to future cuts if inflation progresses toward target, maintaining policy flexibility.
Mar 17 2026
Former President Trump calls for emergency Fed meeting to cut rates immediately
December Meeting plunges to 62%15%
Ahead of the March 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting, former President Donald Trump publicly urged the Federal Reserve to convene an emergency meeting to cut interest rates immediately, increasing political pressure on the Fed. Despite this, the Fed maintained its cautious stance and did not cut rates at this meeting.
Mar 17 2026
FOMC Holds Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% Amid Elevated Inflation and Geopolitical Uncertainty
December Meeting drops to 77%10%
At the March 17-18 meeting, the Federal Reserve voted 11-1 to keep the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, citing elevated inflation and geopolitical risks, particularly the Iran conflict, as reasons to pause further cuts. This reinforced the cautious approach and lowered market expectations for near-term easing.
Mar 17 2026
Federal Reserve Votes 11-1 to Hold Rates Steady at March Meeting Amid Inflation Concerns
October Meeting plunges to 64%15%
The March 2026 FOMC meeting resulted in an 11-1 vote to maintain rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with one dissenting vote favoring a cut. The decision reflected concerns about inflation and geopolitical risks, reinforcing a cautious policy stance and influencing market expectations for rate cuts later in the year.
Mar 17 2026
President Trump calls for emergency Federal Reserve meeting to cut rates immediately
December Meeting drops to 79%8%
Ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting, former President Donald Trump publicly urged the Federal Reserve to convene an emergency meeting and cut rates immediately, increasing political pressure on the Fed. However, the Fed maintained its independent stance and did not cut rates at this meeting.
Mar 17 2026
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Emphasizes Inflation Risks and Labor Market Stability at March Press Conference
October Meeting plunges to 64%15%
Following the March FOMC meeting, Chair Powell highlighted persistent inflation risks and a stable labor market, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts. His remarks tempered market expectations for immediate easing, contributing to the price decline in the October and September meeting options.
Mar 17 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at March FOMC meeting amid Middle East conflict and inflation concerns
December Meeting plunges to 62%17%
The FOMC decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% during the March 17-18 meeting, citing little change in the U.S. macroeconomic outlook despite increased near-term inflation projections and geopolitical tensions. One dissenting vote favored a 25 basis point cut, but the committee overall remained cautious.
"¿Tipo de interés de la Fed rebajado en...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 8 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Reunión de diciembre" con 11%, seguido de "Reunión de octubre" con 4%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 11¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 11% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.
A día de hoy, "¿Tipo de interés de la Fed rebajado en...?" ha generado $3.3 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Dec 16, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.
Para operar en "¿Tipo de interés de la Fed rebajado en...?", explora los 8 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.
El favorito actual para "¿Tipo de interés de la Fed rebajado en...?" es "Reunión de diciembre" con 11%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 11% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Reunión de octubre" con 4%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.
Las reglas de resolución para "¿Tipo de interés de la Fed rebajado en...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.
Sí. No necesitas operar para mantenerte informado. Esta página sirve como rastreador en vivo para "¿Tipo de interés de la Fed rebajado en...?". Las probabilidades de los resultados se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que entran nuevas operaciones. Puedes guardar esta página en marcadores y consultar la sección de comentarios para ver lo que dicen otros operadores. También puedes usar los filtros de rango temporal en el gráfico para ver cómo han cambiado las probabilidades a lo largo del tiempo.
Las probabilidades de Polymarket son establecidas por operadores reales que ponen dinero real detrás de sus creencias, lo que tiende a generar predicciones precisas. Con $3.3 million operados en “¿Tipo de interés de la Fed rebajado en...?”, estos precios agregan el conocimiento colectivo y la convicción de miles de participantes — a menudo superando a encuestas, pronósticos de expertos y estudios tradicionales. Los mercados de predicción como Polymarket tienen un sólido historial de precisión, especialmente cuando los eventos se acercan a su fecha de resolución. Por ejemplo, Polymarket tiene una puntuación de precisión a un mes de 94%. Para las últimas estadísticas sobre la precisión de predicción de Polymarket, visita la página de precisión en Polymarket.
Para realizar tu primera operación en "¿Tipo de interés de la Fed rebajado en...?", regístrate en una cuenta gratuita de Polymarket y deposita fondos usando criptomonedas, tarjeta de crédito o débito, o transferencia bancaria. Una vez que tu cuenta tenga fondos, vuelve a esta página, selecciona el resultado en el que quieras operar, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si eres nuevo en los mercados de predicción, haz clic en el enlace "Cómo funciona" en la parte superior de cualquier página de Polymarket para una guía paso a paso.
En Polymarket, el precio de cada resultado representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Un precio de 11¢ para "Reunión de diciembre" en el mercado "¿Tipo de interés de la Fed rebajado en...?" significa que los operadores colectivamente creen que hay aproximadamente una probabilidad de 11% de que "Reunión de diciembre" sea el resultado correcto. Si compras acciones de "Sí" a 11¢ y el resultado es correcto, recibes $1,00 por acción, una ganancia de 89¢ por acción. Si es incorrecto, esas acciones valen $0.
El mercado "¿Tipo de interés de la Fed rebajado en...?" está programado para resolverse en o alrededor del Jan 7, 2027. Esto significa que el trading permanecerá abierto y las probabilidades seguirán cambiando hasta esa fecha. El momento exacto de resolución depende de cuándo esté disponible el resultado oficial, como se describe en la sección "Reglas".
El mercado "¿Tipo de interés de la Fed rebajado en...?" tiene una comunidad activa de 30 comentarios donde los operadores comparten sus análisis, debaten resultados y discuten los últimos desarrollos. Desplázate hacia abajo a la sección de comentarios para leer lo que piensan otros participantes. También puedes filtrar por "Principales poseedores" o consultar la pestaña "Actividad" para un feed en tiempo real de operaciones.
Polymarket es el mercado de predicción más grande del mundo, donde puedes mantenerte informado y beneficiarte de tu conocimiento sobre eventos del mundo real. Los operadores compran y venden acciones sobre resultados de temas que van desde política y elecciones hasta criptomonedas, finanzas, deportes, tecnología y cultura, incluyendo mercados como "¿Tipo de interés de la Fed rebajado en...?". Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real respaldadas por convicción financiera, ofreciendo a menudo señales más rápidas y precisas que las encuestas, los expertos o los estudios tradicionales.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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