Incumbent John Mannion holds a commanding lead in the NY-22 race due to the district's solid Democratic lean after recent redistricting, his established name recognition from the 2024 win, and a substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $1.8 million in cash on hand compared to challenger Kailee Buller's roughly $180,000–190,000. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June primaries, with national Republican groups largely bypassing the seat. Buller, a former USDA official with ties to agriculture interests and an endorsement from President Trump, has emphasized affordability, taxes, and immigration, while Mannion highlights constituent services and recent legislative efforts on disaster relief and healthcare. Trader consensus reflected in the odds accounts for these structural factors, though outcomes could shift with late-campaign developments such as major national economic changes, candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout variations in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$22,693 Vol.
$22,693 Vol.
4 nov 2026
John Mannion (D)
94%
Kailee Buller (R)
6%
$22,693 Vol.
$22,693 Vol.
4 nov 2026
John Mannion (D)
$11,334 Vol.
94%
Kailee Buller (R)
$11,358 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent John Mannion holds a commanding lead in the NY-22 race due to the district's solid Democratic lean after recent redistricting, his established name recognition from the 2024 win, and a substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $1.8 million in cash on hand compared to challenger Kailee Buller's roughly $180,000–190,000. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June primaries, with national Republican groups largely bypassing the seat. Buller, a former USDA official with ties to agriculture interests and an endorsement from President Trump, has emphasized affordability, taxes, and immigration, while Mannion highlights constituent services and recent legislative efforts on disaster relief and healthcare. Trader consensus reflected in the odds accounts for these structural factors, though outcomes could shift with late-campaign developments such as major national economic changes, candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout variations in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volumen
$22,693Fecha de finalización
5 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent John Mannion holds a commanding lead in the NY-22 race due to the district's solid Democratic lean after recent redistricting, his established name recognition from the 2024 win, and a substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $1.8 million in cash on hand compared to challenger Kailee Buller's roughly $180,000–190,000. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June primaries, with national Republican groups largely bypassing the seat. Buller, a former USDA official with ties to agriculture interests and an endorsement from President Trump, has emphasized affordability, taxes, and immigration, while Mannion highlights constituent services and recent legislative efforts on disaster relief and healthcare. Trader consensus reflected in the odds accounts for these structural factors, though outcomes could shift with late-campaign developments such as major national economic changes, candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout variations in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$22,693Fecha de finalización
5 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent John Mannion holds a commanding lead in the NY-22 race due to the district's solid Democratic lean after recent redistricting, his established name recognition from the 2024 win, and a substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $1.8 million in cash on hand compared to challenger Kailee Buller's roughly $180,000–190,000. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June primaries, with national Republican groups largely bypassing the seat. Buller, a former USDA official with ties to agriculture interests and an endorsement from President Trump, has emphasized affordability, taxes, and immigration, while Mannion highlights constituent services and recent legislative efforts on disaster relief and healthcare. Trader consensus reflected in the odds accounts for these structural factors, though outcomes could shift with late-campaign developments such as major national economic changes, candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout variations in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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