The Parti Québécois leads trader expectations for the October 5, 2026 Quebec election at 65.5% implied probability, reflecting its consistent polling advantage among francophone voters and stronger projected seat totals in most aggregators. The CAQ at 31% has narrowed the gap in recent surveys following the August 27 writ drop, gaining support amid U.S. tariff concerns that favor the incumbent party's trade experience under new leader Christine Fréchette. The PLQ trails at 4.5% as its backing concentrates in Montreal while eroding elsewhere, with minor parties showing negligible prospects. Regional dynamics, francophone priorities on sovereignty and economic stability, and the absence of a clear majority path for any party continue to shape the closely contested race between the top two contenders.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones generales de Quebec
Ganador de las elecciones generales de Quebec
PQ 66%
CAQ 31%
PLQ 5%
PCQ <1%
$869,525 Vol.
$869,525 Vol.
4 oct 2026
PQ
66%
CAQ
31%
PLQ
5%
PCQ
<1%
PVQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PQ 66%
CAQ 31%
PLQ 5%
PCQ <1%
$869,525 Vol.
$869,525 Vol.
4 oct 2026
PQ
$110,836 Vol.
66%
CAQ
$134,994 Vol.
31%
PLQ
$121,371 Vol.
5%
PCQ
$240,279 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$157,522 Vol.
<1%
QS
$104,523 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Parti Québécois leads trader expectations for the October 5, 2026 Quebec election at 65.5% implied probability, reflecting its consistent polling advantage among francophone voters and stronger projected seat totals in most aggregators. The CAQ at 31% has narrowed the gap in recent surveys following the August 27 writ drop, gaining support amid U.S. tariff concerns that favor the incumbent party's trade experience under new leader Christine Fréchette. The PLQ trails at 4.5% as its backing concentrates in Montreal while eroding elsewhere, with minor parties showing negligible prospects. Regional dynamics, francophone priorities on sovereignty and economic stability, and the absence of a clear majority path for any party continue to shape the closely contested race between the top two contenders.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercado abierto: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volumen
$869,525Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Parti Québécois leads trader expectations for the October 5, 2026 Quebec election at 65.5% implied probability, reflecting its consistent polling advantage among francophone voters and stronger projected seat totals in most aggregators. The CAQ at 31% has narrowed the gap in recent surveys following the August 27 writ drop, gaining support amid U.S. tariff concerns that favor the incumbent party's trade experience under new leader Christine Fréchette. The PLQ trails at 4.5% as its backing concentrates in Montreal while eroding elsewhere, with minor parties showing negligible prospects. Regional dynamics, francophone priorities on sovereignty and economic stability, and the absence of a clear majority path for any party continue to shape the closely contested race between the top two contenders.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volumen
$869,525Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Parti Québécois leads trader expectations for the October 5, 2026 Quebec election at 65.5% implied probability, reflecting its consistent polling advantage among francophone voters and stronger projected seat totals in most aggregators. The CAQ at 31% has narrowed the gap in recent surveys following the August 27 writ drop, gaining support amid U.S. tariff concerns that favor the incumbent party's trade experience under new leader Christine Fréchette. The PLQ trails at 4.5% as its backing concentrates in Montreal while eroding elsewhere, with minor parties showing negligible prospects. Regional dynamics, francophone priorities on sovereignty and economic stability, and the absence of a clear majority path for any party continue to shape the closely contested race between the top two contenders.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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