Traders assign a 97% implied probability that the United States will not default on Treasury obligations by the end of 2026 because the most recent debt limit increase of $5 trillion enacted in 2025 provided substantial headroom, with projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and National Taxpayers Union placing the next statutory limit contact in spring or summer 2027 and any subsequent exhaustion of extraordinary measures even later. Congress has repeatedly raised or suspended the ceiling in prior cycles to avert missed payments, reflecting consistent institutional incentives to protect the dollar's reserve status and avoid higher borrowing costs or market disruption. Persistent deficits and debt above 100% of GDP create ongoing fiscal pressure, yet the timeline through resolution leaves ample opportunity for legislative action. Unlikely scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a sharper-than-expected economic downturn accelerating borrowing needs or an unprecedented failure to reach agreement before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Estados Unidos incurrirá en impago de deuda para 2027?
¿Estados Unidos incurrirá en impago de deuda para 2027?
Sí
3% probabilidad
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sí
3% probabilidad
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97% implied probability that the United States will not default on Treasury obligations by the end of 2026 because the most recent debt limit increase of $5 trillion enacted in 2025 provided substantial headroom, with projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and National Taxpayers Union placing the next statutory limit contact in spring or summer 2027 and any subsequent exhaustion of extraordinary measures even later. Congress has repeatedly raised or suspended the ceiling in prior cycles to avert missed payments, reflecting consistent institutional incentives to protect the dollar's reserve status and avoid higher borrowing costs or market disruption. Persistent deficits and debt above 100% of GDP create ongoing fiscal pressure, yet the timeline through resolution leaves ample opportunity for legislative action. Unlikely scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a sharper-than-expected economic downturn accelerating borrowing needs or an unprecedented failure to reach agreement before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volumen
$18,051Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97% implied probability that the United States will not default on Treasury obligations by the end of 2026 because the most recent debt limit increase of $5 trillion enacted in 2025 provided substantial headroom, with projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and National Taxpayers Union placing the next statutory limit contact in spring or summer 2027 and any subsequent exhaustion of extraordinary measures even later. Congress has repeatedly raised or suspended the ceiling in prior cycles to avert missed payments, reflecting consistent institutional incentives to protect the dollar's reserve status and avoid higher borrowing costs or market disruption. Persistent deficits and debt above 100% of GDP create ongoing fiscal pressure, yet the timeline through resolution leaves ample opportunity for legislative action. Unlikely scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a sharper-than-expected economic downturn accelerating borrowing needs or an unprecedented failure to reach agreement before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volumen
$18,051Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97% implied probability that the United States will not default on Treasury obligations by the end of 2026 because the most recent debt limit increase of $5 trillion enacted in 2025 provided substantial headroom, with projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and National Taxpayers Union placing the next statutory limit contact in spring or summer 2027 and any subsequent exhaustion of extraordinary measures even later. Congress has repeatedly raised or suspended the ceiling in prior cycles to avert missed payments, reflecting consistent institutional incentives to protect the dollar's reserve status and avoid higher borrowing costs or market disruption. Persistent deficits and debt above 100% of GDP create ongoing fiscal pressure, yet the timeline through resolution leaves ample opportunity for legislative action. Unlikely scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a sharper-than-expected economic downturn accelerating borrowing needs or an unprecedented failure to reach agreement before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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