Recent polling from mid-September shows a tight contest for Alagoas's two Senate seats, with Renan Calheiros (MDB), Marina JHC (PSDB), and Arthur Lira (PP) in technical ties within margins of error on combined first- and second-choice votes. Surveys indicate Renan leading slightly in some aggregates at around 22%, followed closely by Marina JHC near 21% and Lira at 19%, while Davi Davino Filho trails at 17%. This positioning stems from late candidate substitutions, including Marina JHC replacing her husband in the aligned slate, and limited name recognition challenges outside urban centers. The October 4 first-round vote, where each elector selects two distinct candidates, keeps second-place probabilities fluid pending final turnout and preference shifts among undecided voters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedArthur Lira 44%
Renan 33%
Marina JHC 24%
Davi Davino Filho 2.3%
$24,948 Vol.
$24,948 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Arthur Lira
44%
Renan
33%
Marina JHC
24%
Davi Davino Filho
2%
Dr. Wanderley
1%
Alexandre Fleming
<1%
Mariedson
<1%
Arthur Lira 44%
Renan 33%
Marina JHC 24%
Davi Davino Filho 2.3%
$24,948 Vol.
$24,948 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Arthur Lira
$6,204 Vol.
44%
Renan
$9,493 Vol.
33%
Marina JHC
$5,262 Vol.
24%
Davi Davino Filho
$1,092 Vol.
2%
Dr. Wanderley
$1,419 Vol.
1%
Alexandre Fleming
$716 Vol.
<1%
Mariedson
$763 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from mid-September shows a tight contest for Alagoas's two Senate seats, with Renan Calheiros (MDB), Marina JHC (PSDB), and Arthur Lira (PP) in technical ties within margins of error on combined first- and second-choice votes. Surveys indicate Renan leading slightly in some aggregates at around 22%, followed closely by Marina JHC near 21% and Lira at 19%, while Davi Davino Filho trails at 17%. This positioning stems from late candidate substitutions, including Marina JHC replacing her husband in the aligned slate, and limited name recognition challenges outside urban centers. The October 4 first-round vote, where each elector selects two distinct candidates, keeps second-place probabilities fluid pending final turnout and preference shifts among undecided voters.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ET
Volume
$24,948End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from mid-September shows a tight contest for Alagoas's two Senate seats, with Renan Calheiros (MDB), Marina JHC (PSDB), and Arthur Lira (PP) in technical ties within margins of error on combined first- and second-choice votes. Surveys indicate Renan leading slightly in some aggregates at around 22%, followed closely by Marina JHC near 21% and Lira at 19%, while Davi Davino Filho trails at 17%. This positioning stems from late candidate substitutions, including Marina JHC replacing her husband in the aligned slate, and limited name recognition challenges outside urban centers. The October 4 first-round vote, where each elector selects two distinct candidates, keeps second-place probabilities fluid pending final turnout and preference shifts among undecided voters.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$24,948End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from mid-September shows a tight contest for Alagoas's two Senate seats, with Renan Calheiros (MDB), Marina JHC (PSDB), and Arthur Lira (PP) in technical ties within margins of error on combined first- and second-choice votes. Surveys indicate Renan leading slightly in some aggregates at around 22%, followed closely by Marina JHC near 21% and Lira at 19%, while Davi Davino Filho trails at 17%. This positioning stems from late candidate substitutions, including Marina JHC replacing her husband in the aligned slate, and limited name recognition challenges outside urban centers. The October 4 first-round vote, where each elector selects two distinct candidates, keeps second-place probabilities fluid pending final turnout and preference shifts among undecided voters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions