The competitive U.S. Senate contest between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola, rated a toss-up by multiple forecasters, stands as the central driver of turnout expectations for Alaska’s November general election first round under ranked-choice voting. Recent primary results showed elevated participation at roughly 28 percent of registered voters amid an open governor’s race and the same high-profile matchup, signaling strong baseline interest that traders expect to carry forward without a presidential contest at the top of the ticket. Close polling averages near 48-49 percent for each major candidate, combined with the state’s large unaffiliated bloc and RCV mechanics that reward broad first-choice support, keep projected totals clustered in the mid-to-high 200,000s. Factors such as mobilization efforts, early voting trends, and election-day conditions could widen the range, while historical off-year patterns and the absence of national coattails limit upside separation.