**Nigel Farage was re-elected as Reform UK MP for Clacton on 13 August 2026 after resigning in July to trigger a by-election amid a parliamentary standards probe into an undeclared £5 million gift.** He won with 63.3% of the vote against novelty and fringe candidates, as major parties boycotted the contest. The standards investigation resumed immediately after his victory and remains ongoing, with any breach potentially leading to suspension and a recall petition that could force another by-election. However, the recall process involves formal findings, a petition threshold, and timelines that make completion before the end of 2026 improbable. No other triggers such as resignation, vacancy, or constituency events have emerged since the August result, supporting the strong trader consensus against another poll this year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated11% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
11% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Nigel Farage was re-elected as Reform UK MP for Clacton on 13 August 2026 after resigning in July to trigger a by-election amid a parliamentary standards probe into an undeclared £5 million gift.** He won with 63.3% of the vote against novelty and fringe candidates, as major parties boycotted the contest. The standards investigation resumed immediately after his victory and remains ongoing, with any breach potentially leading to suspension and a recall petition that could force another by-election.
However, the recall process involves formal findings, a petition threshold, and timelines that make completion before the end of 2026 improbable. No other triggers such as resignation, vacancy, or constituency events have emerged since the August result, supporting the strong trader consensus against another poll this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ET
Volume
$683End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Nigel Farage was re-elected as Reform UK MP for Clacton on 13 August 2026 after resigning in July to trigger a by-election amid a parliamentary standards probe into an undeclared £5 million gift.** He won with 63.3% of the vote against novelty and fringe candidates, as major parties boycotted the contest. The standards investigation resumed immediately after his victory and remains ongoing, with any breach potentially leading to suspension and a recall petition that could force another by-election.
However, the recall process involves formal findings, a petition threshold, and timelines that make completion before the end of 2026 improbable. No other triggers such as resignation, vacancy, or constituency events have emerged since the August result, supporting the strong trader consensus against another poll this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$683End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Nigel Farage was re-elected as Reform UK MP for Clacton on 13 August 2026 after resigning in July to trigger a by-election amid a parliamentary standards probe into an undeclared £5 million gift.** He won with 63.3% of the vote against novelty and fringe candidates, as major parties boycotted the contest. The standards investigation resumed immediately after his victory and remains ongoing, with any breach potentially leading to suspension and a recall petition that could force another by-election. However, the recall process involves formal findings, a petition threshold, and timelines that make completion before the end of 2026 improbable. No other triggers such as resignation, vacancy, or constituency events have emerged since the August result, supporting the strong trader consensus against another poll this year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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