Recent record ocean warmth and a rapidly strengthening El Niño event have driven trader consensus toward the 1.38–1.41 °C outcome for the August 2026 global surface temperature anomaly relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Copernicus data show daily extra-polar sea surface temperatures peaking at 21.1 °C in late August, exceeding prior records, while Berkeley Earth reported July at 1.56 °C and UAH satellite measurements indicated a sharp tropospheric rise to +0.68 °C above the 1991–2020 mean. These conditions align with the long-term anthropogenic trend amplified by the developing El Niño, whose Niño-3.4 indices have already entered strong territory. Final surface analyses from agencies such as NOAA or NASA could still shift the precise value within the narrow band if late-month cooling or dataset revisions occur, though current observations leave little room for outcomes outside the dominant range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.38–1.41ºC 90%
1.42–1.45ºC 9%
1.34–1.37ºC 1.3%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,482 Vol.
$20,482 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
1%
1.38–1.41ºC
90%
1.42–1.45ºC
7%
>1.45ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC 90%
1.42–1.45ºC 9%
1.34–1.37ºC 1.3%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,482 Vol.
$20,482 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1.30ºC
$657 Vol.
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 Vol.
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$3,129 Vol.
1%
1.38–1.41ºC
$4,484 Vol.
90%
1.42–1.45ºC
$9,219 Vol.
7%
>1.45ºC
$1,531 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent record ocean warmth and a rapidly strengthening El Niño event have driven trader consensus toward the 1.38–1.41 °C outcome for the August 2026 global surface temperature anomaly relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Copernicus data show daily extra-polar sea surface temperatures peaking at 21.1 °C in late August, exceeding prior records, while Berkeley Earth reported July at 1.56 °C and UAH satellite measurements indicated a sharp tropospheric rise to +0.68 °C above the 1991–2020 mean. These conditions align with the long-term anthropogenic trend amplified by the developing El Niño, whose Niño-3.4 indices have already entered strong territory. Final surface analyses from agencies such as NOAA or NASA could still shift the precise value within the narrow band if late-month cooling or dataset revisions occur, though current observations leave little room for outcomes outside the dominant range.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volume
$20,482End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent record ocean warmth and a rapidly strengthening El Niño event have driven trader consensus toward the 1.38–1.41 °C outcome for the August 2026 global surface temperature anomaly relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Copernicus data show daily extra-polar sea surface temperatures peaking at 21.1 °C in late August, exceeding prior records, while Berkeley Earth reported July at 1.56 °C and UAH satellite measurements indicated a sharp tropospheric rise to +0.68 °C above the 1991–2020 mean. These conditions align with the long-term anthropogenic trend amplified by the developing El Niño, whose Niño-3.4 indices have already entered strong territory. Final surface analyses from agencies such as NOAA or NASA could still shift the precise value within the narrow band if late-month cooling or dataset revisions occur, though current observations leave little room for outcomes outside the dominant range.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$20,482End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent record ocean warmth and a rapidly strengthening El Niño event have driven trader consensus toward the 1.38–1.41 °C outcome for the August 2026 global surface temperature anomaly relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Copernicus data show daily extra-polar sea surface temperatures peaking at 21.1 °C in late August, exceeding prior records, while Berkeley Earth reported July at 1.56 °C and UAH satellite measurements indicated a sharp tropospheric rise to +0.68 °C above the 1991–2020 mean. These conditions align with the long-term anthropogenic trend amplified by the developing El Niño, whose Niño-3.4 indices have already entered strong territory. Final surface analyses from agencies such as NOAA or NASA could still shift the precise value within the narrow band if late-month cooling or dataset revisions occur, though current observations leave little room for outcomes outside the dominant range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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