**Strong El Niño conditions superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming are driving August 2026 global mean surface temperature anomalies well above 1.5 °C relative to the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline.** Official monitoring from ERA5 and ECMWF ensembles shows the month tracking toward approximately +1.64 °C, with recent daily global sea-surface temperatures setting new records in late August amid Niño 3.4 values exceeding +2.5 °C. This aligns with the market’s near-certain (>99 %) implied probability for an outcome above 1.29 °C, reflecting both the background trend of roughly 0.2 °C per decade and the additional El Niño boost observed in recent model runs and in-situ data. Realistic challenges remain limited but include potential late-month cooling from atmospheric variability or dataset-specific revisions between reanalyses such as ERA5 and GISTEMP, though current observations place the outcome comfortably above the threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.29ºC 99.4%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$14,167 Vol.
$14,167 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
1%
>1.29ºC
99%
>1.29ºC 99.4%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$14,167 Vol.
$14,167 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<1.10ºC
$877 Vol.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$999 Vol.
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$2,093 Vol.
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$2,783 Vol.
1%
>1.29ºC
$6,294 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Strong El Niño conditions superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming are driving August 2026 global mean surface temperature anomalies well above 1.5 °C relative to the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline.** Official monitoring from ERA5 and ECMWF ensembles shows the month tracking toward approximately +1.64 °C, with recent daily global sea-surface temperatures setting new records in late August amid Niño 3.4 values exceeding +2.5 °C. This aligns with the market’s near-certain (>99 %) implied probability for an outcome above 1.29 °C, reflecting both the background trend of roughly 0.2 °C per decade and the additional El Niño boost observed in recent model runs and in-situ data.
Realistic challenges remain limited but include potential late-month cooling from atmospheric variability or dataset-specific revisions between reanalyses such as ERA5 and GISTEMP, though current observations place the outcome comfortably above the threshold.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$14,167End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Strong El Niño conditions superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming are driving August 2026 global mean surface temperature anomalies well above 1.5 °C relative to the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline.** Official monitoring from ERA5 and ECMWF ensembles shows the month tracking toward approximately +1.64 °C, with recent daily global sea-surface temperatures setting new records in late August amid Niño 3.4 values exceeding +2.5 °C. This aligns with the market’s near-certain (>99 %) implied probability for an outcome above 1.29 °C, reflecting both the background trend of roughly 0.2 °C per decade and the additional El Niño boost observed in recent model runs and in-situ data.
Realistic challenges remain limited but include potential late-month cooling from atmospheric variability or dataset-specific revisions between reanalyses such as ERA5 and GISTEMP, though current observations place the outcome comfortably above the threshold.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$14,167End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong El Niño conditions superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming are driving August 2026 global mean surface temperature anomalies well above 1.5 °C relative to the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline.** Official monitoring from ERA5 and ECMWF ensembles shows the month tracking toward approximately +1.64 °C, with recent daily global sea-surface temperatures setting new records in late August amid Niño 3.4 values exceeding +2.5 °C. This aligns with the market’s near-certain (>99 %) implied probability for an outcome above 1.29 °C, reflecting both the background trend of roughly 0.2 °C per decade and the additional El Niño boost observed in recent model runs and in-situ data. Realistic challenges remain limited but include potential late-month cooling from atmospheric variability or dataset-specific revisions between reanalyses such as ERA5 and GISTEMP, though current observations place the outcome comfortably above the threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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