Persistent energy price shocks from the ongoing Middle East conflict have pushed euro area headline inflation back above 3% in recent months, prompting the ECB to hike its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% in June 2026 and hold steady in July while signaling another increase at the September 10 meeting. With market-implied odds heavily favoring further tightening or a higher-for-longer stance through year-end, traders assign just 6.5% probability to any rate cut in 2026. This consensus reflects resilient though softening labor markets at 6.2% unemployment and limited evidence of broad second-round effects so far. A swift geopolitical de-escalation that reverses oil and gas spikes, or sharper growth deterioration, could still reopen the door to easing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$31,889 Vol.
$31,889 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
$31,889 Vol.
$31,889 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent energy price shocks from the ongoing Middle East conflict have pushed euro area headline inflation back above 3% in recent months, prompting the ECB to hike its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% in June 2026 and hold steady in July while signaling another increase at the September 10 meeting. With market-implied odds heavily favoring further tightening or a higher-for-longer stance through year-end, traders assign just 6.5% probability to any rate cut in 2026. This consensus reflects resilient though softening labor markets at 6.2% unemployment and limited evidence of broad second-round effects so far. A swift geopolitical de-escalation that reverses oil and gas spikes, or sharper growth deterioration, could still reopen the door to easing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$31,889End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent energy price shocks from the ongoing Middle East conflict have pushed euro area headline inflation back above 3% in recent months, prompting the ECB to hike its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% in June 2026 and hold steady in July while signaling another increase at the September 10 meeting. With market-implied odds heavily favoring further tightening or a higher-for-longer stance through year-end, traders assign just 6.5% probability to any rate cut in 2026. This consensus reflects resilient though softening labor markets at 6.2% unemployment and limited evidence of broad second-round effects so far. A swift geopolitical de-escalation that reverses oil and gas spikes, or sharper growth deterioration, could still reopen the door to easing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$31,889End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent energy price shocks from the ongoing Middle East conflict have pushed euro area headline inflation back above 3% in recent months, prompting the ECB to hike its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% in June 2026 and hold steady in July while signaling another increase at the September 10 meeting. With market-implied odds heavily favoring further tightening or a higher-for-longer stance through year-end, traders assign just 6.5% probability to any rate cut in 2026. This consensus reflects resilient though softening labor markets at 6.2% unemployment and limited evidence of broad second-round effects so far. A swift geopolitical de-escalation that reverses oil and gas spikes, or sharper growth deterioration, could still reopen the door to easing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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