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icon for Fed abolished before 2027?
Economy·Trump

Fed abolished before 2027?

icon for Fed abolished before 2027?
Economy·Trump

Fed abolished before 2027?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

3% chance
Polymarket
NEW
3% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Federal Reserve is formally abolished by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Federal Reserve's structural independence, reinforced by a June 2026 Supreme Court ruling that carved out an explicit exception preserving for-cause removal protections for its governors, underpins the near-certain trader consensus against abolition before 2027. Companion bills introduced in March 2025 by Sen. Mike Lee and Rep. Thomas Massie remain stalled in committee with no floor action or broader congressional support, while ongoing reforms under Chair Kevin Warsh emphasize internal adjustments such as balance-sheet management and rules-based policy rather than dissolution. Historical precedent and the Senate's procedural requirements further limit prospects for repealing the Federal Reserve Act on this compressed timeline. Even so, an acute systemic crisis prompting emergency legislative intervention or an unexpected shift in Senate rules could theoretically reopen the question before the end of 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Federal Reserve is formally abolished by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Federal Reserve is formally abolished by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$7,720
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Federal Reserve is formally abolished by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Federal Reserve's structural independence, reinforced by a June 2026 Supreme Court ruling that carved out an explicit exception preserving for-cause removal protections for its governors, underpins the near-certain trader consensus against abolition before 2027. Companion bills introduced in March 2025 by Sen. Mike Lee and Rep. Thomas Massie remain stalled in committee with no floor action or broader congressional support, while ongoing reforms under Chair Kevin Warsh emphasize internal adjustments such as balance-sheet management and rules-based policy rather than dissolution. Historical precedent and the Senate's procedural requirements further limit prospects for repealing the Federal Reserve Act on this compressed timeline. Even so, an acute systemic crisis prompting emergency legislative intervention or an unexpected shift in Senate rules could theoretically reopen the question before the end of 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Federal Reserve is formally abolished by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Federal Reserve is formally abolished by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$7,720
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Fed abolished before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 3% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 3¢, the market collectively assigns a 3% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Fed abolished before 2027?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 5, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Fed abolished before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Fed abolished before 2027?" is 3% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 3% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Fed abolished before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.