**Trader consensus heavily favors no US-Iran meeting by September 30 because the June 17 memorandum of understanding expired without a final agreement, direct negotiations have stalled, and both sides have shifted toward economic pressure and public recriminations rather than new diplomacy.** Talks under the MOU produced rounds in Switzerland (Lucerne/Bürgenstock in June, with technical follow-ups) and Qatar (Doha in late June), mediated primarily by Qatar and Pakistan, with Oman also engaged on Strait of Hormuz issues. Subsequent violations, renewed strikes, and disagreements over implementation—particularly Lebanon ceasefire terms, nuclear limits, and sanctions relief—led to the framework’s collapse by mid-August. As of late August, US officials stated no active negotiations were underway and emphasized economic measures instead. With the 60-day MOU window passed and no confirmed schedule or venue for a follow-on round before the end of September, markets assign only single-digit probabilities to specific locations such as Switzerland, Qatar, Pakistan, or Oman. These reflect the countries’ prior mediator or host roles but remain low absent fresh diplomatic signals. Resolution would require verifiable new commitments or announcements within the narrow remaining window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhere will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 30 86.4%
Switzerland 6%
Pakistan 3.5%
Qatar 2.9%
$5,440,887 Vol.
$5,440,887 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
No Meeting by September 30
86%
Switzerland
6%
Pakistan
3%
Qatar
3%
Oman
1%
Other
1%
Turkey
<1%
Austria
<1%
USA
<1%
UAE
<1%
Iraq
<1%
Other - Europe
<1%
Iran
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Italy
<1%
Kazakhstan
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Russia
<1%
Other - Middle East/North Africa
<1%
No Meeting by September 30 86.4%
Switzerland 6%
Pakistan 3.5%
Qatar 2.9%
$5,440,887 Vol.
$5,440,887 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
No Meeting by September 30
$1,095,702 Vol.
86%
Switzerland
$535,571 Vol.
6%
Pakistan
$315,921 Vol.
3%
Qatar
$669,496 Vol.
3%
Oman
$390,333 Vol.
1%
Other
$620,574 Vol.
1%
Turkey
$89,621 Vol.
<1%
Austria
$291,183 Vol.
<1%
USA
$85,112 Vol.
<1%
UAE
$95,043 Vol.
<1%
Iraq
$110,548 Vol.
<1%
Other - Europe
$98,762 Vol.
<1%
Iran
$197,166 Vol.
<1%
Egypt
$85,502 Vol.
<1%
Italy
$150,378 Vol.
<1%
Kazakhstan
$187,960 Vol.
<1%
Saudi Arabia
$98,830 Vol.
<1%
Russia
$203,244 Vol.
<1%
Other - Middle East/North Africa
$119,940 Vol.
<1%
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks).
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If a qualifying round occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins.
If the next qualifying round begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.”
If the next qualifying round begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe.”
For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa.
If the next qualifying round begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If no qualifying round begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by September 30.”
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
**Trader consensus heavily favors no US-Iran meeting by September 30 because the June 17 memorandum of understanding expired without a final agreement, direct negotiations have stalled, and both sides have shifted toward economic pressure and public recriminations rather than new diplomacy.**
Talks under the MOU produced rounds in Switzerland (Lucerne/Bürgenstock in June, with technical follow-ups) and Qatar (Doha in late June), mediated primarily by Qatar and Pakistan, with Oman also engaged on Strait of Hormuz issues. Subsequent violations, renewed strikes, and disagreements over implementation—particularly Lebanon ceasefire terms, nuclear limits, and sanctions relief—led to the framework’s collapse by mid-August. As of late August, US officials stated no active negotiations were underway and emphasized economic measures instead. With the 60-day MOU window passed and no confirmed schedule or venue for a follow-on round before the end of September, markets assign only single-digit probabilities to specific locations such as Switzerland, Qatar, Pakistan, or Oman. These reflect the countries’ prior mediator or host roles but remain low absent fresh diplomatic signals. Resolution would require verifiable new commitments or announcements within the narrow remaining window.
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks).
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If a qualifying round occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins.
If the next qualifying round begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.”
If the next qualifying round begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe.”
For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa.
If the next qualifying round begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If no qualifying round begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by September 30.”
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If a qualifying round occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins.
If the next qualifying round begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.”
If the next qualifying round begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe.”
For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa.
If the next qualifying round begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If no qualifying round begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by September 30.”
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 22, 2026, 10:47 PM ET
Volume
$5,440,887End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 10:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks).
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If a qualifying round occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins.
If the next qualifying round begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.”
If the next qualifying round begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe.”
For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa.
If the next qualifying round begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If no qualifying round begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by September 30.”
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
**Trader consensus heavily favors no US-Iran meeting by September 30 because the June 17 memorandum of understanding expired without a final agreement, direct negotiations have stalled, and both sides have shifted toward economic pressure and public recriminations rather than new diplomacy.**
Talks under the MOU produced rounds in Switzerland (Lucerne/Bürgenstock in June, with technical follow-ups) and Qatar (Doha in late June), mediated primarily by Qatar and Pakistan, with Oman also engaged on Strait of Hormuz issues. Subsequent violations, renewed strikes, and disagreements over implementation—particularly Lebanon ceasefire terms, nuclear limits, and sanctions relief—led to the framework’s collapse by mid-August. As of late August, US officials stated no active negotiations were underway and emphasized economic measures instead. With the 60-day MOU window passed and no confirmed schedule or venue for a follow-on round before the end of September, markets assign only single-digit probabilities to specific locations such as Switzerland, Qatar, Pakistan, or Oman. These reflect the countries’ prior mediator or host roles but remain low absent fresh diplomatic signals. Resolution would require verifiable new commitments or announcements within the narrow remaining window.
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks).
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If a qualifying round occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins.
If the next qualifying round begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.”
If the next qualifying round begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe.”
For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa.
If the next qualifying round begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If no qualifying round begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by September 30.”
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If a qualifying round occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins.
If the next qualifying round begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.”
If the next qualifying round begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe.”
For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa.
If the next qualifying round begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If no qualifying round begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by September 30.”
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,440,887End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 10:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors no US-Iran meeting by September 30 because the June 17 memorandum of understanding expired without a final agreement, direct negotiations have stalled, and both sides have shifted toward economic pressure and public recriminations rather than new diplomacy.** Talks under the MOU produced rounds in Switzerland (Lucerne/Bürgenstock in June, with technical follow-ups) and Qatar (Doha in late June), mediated primarily by Qatar and Pakistan, with Oman also engaged on Strait of Hormuz issues. Subsequent violations, renewed strikes, and disagreements over implementation—particularly Lebanon ceasefire terms, nuclear limits, and sanctions relief—led to the framework’s collapse by mid-August. As of late August, US officials stated no active negotiations were underway and emphasized economic measures instead. With the 60-day MOU window passed and no confirmed schedule or venue for a follow-on round before the end of September, markets assign only single-digit probabilities to specific locations such as Switzerland, Qatar, Pakistan, or Oman. These reflect the countries’ prior mediator or host roles but remain low absent fresh diplomatic signals. Resolution would require verifiable new commitments or announcements within the narrow remaining window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions