Florida’s 16th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+6 and supported the Republican presidential nominee by double digits in recent cycles, creating a structural advantage for the GOP in this open-seat contest. Vern Buchanan’s retirement opened the race, but Republican nominee Sydney Gruters secured her party’s nomination in the August 18 primary with a strong fundraising lead and organizational support. Democratic nominee Kelly Kirschner emerged from a crowded primary field, yet faces the district’s consistent Republican tilt and limited recent polling momentum. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican, and trader consensus at 84% Republican reflects these baseline partisan metrics, primary outcomes, and absence of major late developments capable of shifting the balance before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-16 House Election Winner
FL-16 House Election Winner
$25,759 Vol.
$25,759 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
84%
Democratic Party
17%
$25,759 Vol.
$25,759 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$9,773 Vol.
84%
Democratic Party
$15,986 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida’s 16th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+6 and supported the Republican presidential nominee by double digits in recent cycles, creating a structural advantage for the GOP in this open-seat contest. Vern Buchanan’s retirement opened the race, but Republican nominee Sydney Gruters secured her party’s nomination in the August 18 primary with a strong fundraising lead and organizational support. Democratic nominee Kelly Kirschner emerged from a crowded primary field, yet faces the district’s consistent Republican tilt and limited recent polling momentum. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican, and trader consensus at 84% Republican reflects these baseline partisan metrics, primary outcomes, and absence of major late developments capable of shifting the balance before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Volume
$25,759End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida’s 16th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+6 and supported the Republican presidential nominee by double digits in recent cycles, creating a structural advantage for the GOP in this open-seat contest. Vern Buchanan’s retirement opened the race, but Republican nominee Sydney Gruters secured her party’s nomination in the August 18 primary with a strong fundraising lead and organizational support. Democratic nominee Kelly Kirschner emerged from a crowded primary field, yet faces the district’s consistent Republican tilt and limited recent polling momentum. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican, and trader consensus at 84% Republican reflects these baseline partisan metrics, primary outcomes, and absence of major late developments capable of shifting the balance before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,759End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida’s 16th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+6 and supported the Republican presidential nominee by double digits in recent cycles, creating a structural advantage for the GOP in this open-seat contest. Vern Buchanan’s retirement opened the race, but Republican nominee Sydney Gruters secured her party’s nomination in the August 18 primary with a strong fundraising lead and organizational support. Democratic nominee Kelly Kirschner emerged from a crowded primary field, yet faces the district’s consistent Republican tilt and limited recent polling momentum. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican, and trader consensus at 84% Republican reflects these baseline partisan metrics, primary outcomes, and absence of major late developments capable of shifting the balance before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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