**Trader consensus centers on a 31–33°C daily maximum in Manila on September 1, 2026, with 32°C holding the largest share of implied probability.** Multiple forecast models converge on this narrow band because the southwest monsoon (habagat) continues to dominate regional flow, bringing increased cloud cover, scattered showers or thunderstorms, and moderate southwesterly winds that limit daytime heating. Official and private guidance issued August 31 shows projected highs of 30–32°C (roughly 86–90°F) under partly cloudy skies with 40–60% rain chances and dew points near 24–26°C, keeping heat indices elevated but capping absolute maxima. PAGASA’s extended outlook for Metro Manila explicitly lists a 30°C high and 40% rain probability, consistent with climatological September averages of 30–32°C and the current suppression of stronger solar heating by monsoon moisture and convection. Recent developments reinforcing these odds include the passage of Tropical Depression Pilandok east of northern Luzon, which has steered enhanced southwest flow across the region without direct landfall impacts, and sub-seasonal outlooks indicating near-average or slightly cooler conditions over Luzon for the period. With resolution occurring within hours, model consensus and ongoing monsoon conditions leave little room for outliers above 34°C or below 30°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 1?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 1?
32°C 46%
31°C 22%
33°C 22%
30°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
3%
30°C
8%
31°C
22%
32°C
46%
33°C
22%
34°C
6%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
1%
32°C 46%
31°C 22%
33°C 22%
30°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
26°C or below
$3,242 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$258 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$325 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$250 Vol.
3%
30°C
$381 Vol.
8%
31°C
$1,550 Vol.
22%
32°C
$1,221 Vol.
46%
33°C
$633 Vol.
22%
34°C
$379 Vol.
6%
35°C
$177 Vol.
1%
36°C or higher
$268 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a 31–33°C daily maximum in Manila on September 1, 2026, with 32°C holding the largest share of implied probability.** Multiple forecast models converge on this narrow band because the southwest monsoon (habagat) continues to dominate regional flow, bringing increased cloud cover, scattered showers or thunderstorms, and moderate southwesterly winds that limit daytime heating.
Official and private guidance issued August 31 shows projected highs of 30–32°C (roughly 86–90°F) under partly cloudy skies with 40–60% rain chances and dew points near 24–26°C, keeping heat indices elevated but capping absolute maxima. PAGASA’s extended outlook for Metro Manila explicitly lists a 30°C high and 40% rain probability, consistent with climatological September averages of 30–32°C and the current suppression of stronger solar heating by monsoon moisture and convection.
Recent developments reinforcing these odds include the passage of Tropical Depression Pilandok east of northern Luzon, which has steered enhanced southwest flow across the region without direct landfall impacts, and sub-seasonal outlooks indicating near-average or slightly cooler conditions over Luzon for the period. With resolution occurring within hours, model consensus and ongoing monsoon conditions leave little room for outliers above 34°C or below 30°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$8,684End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a 31–33°C daily maximum in Manila on September 1, 2026, with 32°C holding the largest share of implied probability.** Multiple forecast models converge on this narrow band because the southwest monsoon (habagat) continues to dominate regional flow, bringing increased cloud cover, scattered showers or thunderstorms, and moderate southwesterly winds that limit daytime heating.
Official and private guidance issued August 31 shows projected highs of 30–32°C (roughly 86–90°F) under partly cloudy skies with 40–60% rain chances and dew points near 24–26°C, keeping heat indices elevated but capping absolute maxima. PAGASA’s extended outlook for Metro Manila explicitly lists a 30°C high and 40% rain probability, consistent with climatological September averages of 30–32°C and the current suppression of stronger solar heating by monsoon moisture and convection.
Recent developments reinforcing these odds include the passage of Tropical Depression Pilandok east of northern Luzon, which has steered enhanced southwest flow across the region without direct landfall impacts, and sub-seasonal outlooks indicating near-average or slightly cooler conditions over Luzon for the period. With resolution occurring within hours, model consensus and ongoing monsoon conditions leave little room for outliers above 34°C or below 30°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,684End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus centers on a 31–33°C daily maximum in Manila on September 1, 2026, with 32°C holding the largest share of implied probability.** Multiple forecast models converge on this narrow band because the southwest monsoon (habagat) continues to dominate regional flow, bringing increased cloud cover, scattered showers or thunderstorms, and moderate southwesterly winds that limit daytime heating. Official and private guidance issued August 31 shows projected highs of 30–32°C (roughly 86–90°F) under partly cloudy skies with 40–60% rain chances and dew points near 24–26°C, keeping heat indices elevated but capping absolute maxima. PAGASA’s extended outlook for Metro Manila explicitly lists a 30°C high and 40% rain probability, consistent with climatological September averages of 30–32°C and the current suppression of stronger solar heating by monsoon moisture and convection. Recent developments reinforcing these odds include the passage of Tropical Depression Pilandok east of northern Luzon, which has steered enhanced southwest flow across the region without direct landfall impacts, and sub-seasonal outlooks indicating near-average or slightly cooler conditions over Luzon for the period. With resolution occurring within hours, model consensus and ongoing monsoon conditions leave little room for outliers above 34°C or below 30°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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