Forecast models indicate a highest temperature of 28–30°C in Tokyo on September 1, with 29°C holding the strongest market-implied probability at 43.5%. Persistent cloud cover, light easterly winds, and moderate humidity are limiting daytime heating, consistent with seasonal cooling from peak August values near 31–32°C. Multiple sources project highs of 28–31°C under mostly cloudy skies with low precipitation chances, keeping extreme outcomes below 10% probability. Historical averages for early September near 30°C provide climatological context, while short-term model consensus shows minimal spread that supports the tight clustering around 28–30°C. Updated guidance expected overnight could refine these odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 1?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 1?
29°C 44%
28°C 24%
30°C 24%
31°C 7%
NEW
$27,308 Vol.
NEW
$27,308 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
24%
29°C
44%
30°C
24%
31°C
7%
32°C
1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
29°C 44%
28°C 24%
30°C 24%
31°C 7%
NEW
$27,308 Vol.
NEW
$27,308 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
26°C or below
$786 Vol.
1%
27°C
$1,292 Vol.
3%
28°C
$2,845 Vol.
24%
29°C
$3,158 Vol.
44%
30°C
$2,214 Vol.
24%
31°C
$3,417 Vol.
7%
32°C
$6,069 Vol.
1%
33°C
$2,487 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$1,656 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$1,235 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$2,148 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models indicate a highest temperature of 28–30°C in Tokyo on September 1, with 29°C holding the strongest market-implied probability at 43.5%. Persistent cloud cover, light easterly winds, and moderate humidity are limiting daytime heating, consistent with seasonal cooling from peak August values near 31–32°C. Multiple sources project highs of 28–31°C under mostly cloudy skies with low precipitation chances, keeping extreme outcomes below 10% probability. Historical averages for early September near 30°C provide climatological context, while short-term model consensus shows minimal spread that supports the tight clustering around 28–30°C. Updated guidance expected overnight could refine these odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$27,308End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models indicate a highest temperature of 28–30°C in Tokyo on September 1, with 29°C holding the strongest market-implied probability at 43.5%. Persistent cloud cover, light easterly winds, and moderate humidity are limiting daytime heating, consistent with seasonal cooling from peak August values near 31–32°C. Multiple sources project highs of 28–31°C under mostly cloudy skies with low precipitation chances, keeping extreme outcomes below 10% probability. Historical averages for early September near 30°C provide climatological context, while short-term model consensus shows minimal spread that supports the tight clustering around 28–30°C. Updated guidance expected overnight could refine these odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$27,308End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models indicate a highest temperature of 28–30°C in Tokyo on September 1, with 29°C holding the strongest market-implied probability at 43.5%. Persistent cloud cover, light easterly winds, and moderate humidity are limiting daytime heating, consistent with seasonal cooling from peak August values near 31–32°C. Multiple sources project highs of 28–31°C under mostly cloudy skies with low precipitation chances, keeping extreme outcomes below 10% probability. Historical averages for early September near 30°C provide climatological context, while short-term model consensus shows minimal spread that supports the tight clustering around 28–30°C. Updated guidance expected overnight could refine these odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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