**Forecast models and recent observations position 29°C and 30°C as the leading outcomes for Tokyo’s September 1 high temperature, with market-implied probabilities of 42.5% and 32.0%.** Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and multiple numerical weather prediction runs converge on a daytime maximum near 29–30°C under mostly cloudy skies, light northeasterly flow, and moderate humidity levels that limit strong surface heating. Recent late-August observations show daily highs stabilizing around 28–29°C amid persistent cloud cover and weak winds, consistent with the early-September climatological transition from peak summer warmth. These conditions reduce the likelihood of significant further warming or rapid cooling, keeping the distribution tightly centered on 28–30°C while assigning only modest probability to outliers. Traders are weighting the consensus of short-range model guidance and the absence of disruptive synoptic features—such as stronger onshore flow or clearing skies—that could shift the outcome outside this narrow band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 1?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 1?
29°C 43%
30°C 32%
28°C 16%
31°C 7%
NEW
$23,324 Vol.
NEW
$23,324 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
16%
29°C
43%
30°C
32%
31°C
7%
32°C
2%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
29°C 43%
30°C 32%
28°C 16%
31°C 7%
NEW
$23,324 Vol.
NEW
$23,324 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
26°C or below
$631 Vol.
1%
27°C
$1,041 Vol.
2%
28°C
$1,978 Vol.
16%
29°C
$2,513 Vol.
43%
30°C
$1,831 Vol.
32%
31°C
$3,236 Vol.
7%
32°C
$5,458 Vol.
2%
33°C
$2,005 Vol.
1%
34°C
$1,407 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$1,095 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$2,128 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and recent observations position 29°C and 30°C as the leading outcomes for Tokyo’s September 1 high temperature, with market-implied probabilities of 42.5% and 32.0%.**
Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and multiple numerical weather prediction runs converge on a daytime maximum near 29–30°C under mostly cloudy skies, light northeasterly flow, and moderate humidity levels that limit strong surface heating. Recent late-August observations show daily highs stabilizing around 28–29°C amid persistent cloud cover and weak winds, consistent with the early-September climatological transition from peak summer warmth.
These conditions reduce the likelihood of significant further warming or rapid cooling, keeping the distribution tightly centered on 28–30°C while assigning only modest probability to outliers. Traders are weighting the consensus of short-range model guidance and the absence of disruptive synoptic features—such as stronger onshore flow or clearing skies—that could shift the outcome outside this narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$23,324End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and recent observations position 29°C and 30°C as the leading outcomes for Tokyo’s September 1 high temperature, with market-implied probabilities of 42.5% and 32.0%.**
Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and multiple numerical weather prediction runs converge on a daytime maximum near 29–30°C under mostly cloudy skies, light northeasterly flow, and moderate humidity levels that limit strong surface heating. Recent late-August observations show daily highs stabilizing around 28–29°C amid persistent cloud cover and weak winds, consistent with the early-September climatological transition from peak summer warmth.
These conditions reduce the likelihood of significant further warming or rapid cooling, keeping the distribution tightly centered on 28–30°C while assigning only modest probability to outliers. Traders are weighting the consensus of short-range model guidance and the absence of disruptive synoptic features—such as stronger onshore flow or clearing skies—that could shift the outcome outside this narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$23,324End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and recent observations position 29°C and 30°C as the leading outcomes for Tokyo’s September 1 high temperature, with market-implied probabilities of 42.5% and 32.0%.** Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and multiple numerical weather prediction runs converge on a daytime maximum near 29–30°C under mostly cloudy skies, light northeasterly flow, and moderate humidity levels that limit strong surface heating. Recent late-August observations show daily highs stabilizing around 28–29°C amid persistent cloud cover and weak winds, consistent with the early-September climatological transition from peak summer warmth. These conditions reduce the likelihood of significant further warming or rapid cooling, keeping the distribution tightly centered on 28–30°C while assigning only modest probability to outliers. Traders are weighting the consensus of short-range model guidance and the absence of disruptive synoptic features—such as stronger onshore flow or clearing skies—that could shift the outcome outside this narrow band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions