Brett Guthrie's commanding position in the KY-02 House race reflects the district's entrenched Republican advantage, rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20. The longtime incumbent, first elected in 2009 and re-nominated with 85% in the May primary, maintains a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $4.7 million against Democratic nominee Megan Wingfield's limited resources. All major race ratings underscore minimal competitiveness, consistent with the district's consistent support for Republican candidates in prior cycles. Trader consensus at 95% for Guthrie aligns with these structural factors, though an unforeseen development such as a late scandal, health event, or national political shift could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKY-02 House Election Winner
KY-02 House Election Winner
$13,968 Vol.
$13,968 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Brett Guthrie (R)
95%
Megan Wingfield (D)
5%
$13,968 Vol.
$13,968 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Brett Guthrie (R)
$6,297 Vol.
95%
Megan Wingfield (D)
$7,671 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Brett Guthrie's commanding position in the KY-02 House race reflects the district's entrenched Republican advantage, rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20. The longtime incumbent, first elected in 2009 and re-nominated with 85% in the May primary, maintains a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $4.7 million against Democratic nominee Megan Wingfield's limited resources. All major race ratings underscore minimal competitiveness, consistent with the district's consistent support for Republican candidates in prior cycles. Trader consensus at 95% for Guthrie aligns with these structural factors, though an unforeseen development such as a late scandal, health event, or national political shift could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$13,968End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Brett Guthrie's commanding position in the KY-02 House race reflects the district's entrenched Republican advantage, rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20. The longtime incumbent, first elected in 2009 and re-nominated with 85% in the May primary, maintains a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $4.7 million against Democratic nominee Megan Wingfield's limited resources. All major race ratings underscore minimal competitiveness, consistent with the district's consistent support for Republican candidates in prior cycles. Trader consensus at 95% for Guthrie aligns with these structural factors, though an unforeseen development such as a late scandal, health event, or national political shift could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$13,968End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Brett Guthrie's commanding position in the KY-02 House race reflects the district's entrenched Republican advantage, rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20. The longtime incumbent, first elected in 2009 and re-nominated with 85% in the May primary, maintains a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $4.7 million against Democratic nominee Megan Wingfield's limited resources. All major race ratings underscore minimal competitiveness, consistent with the district's consistent support for Republican candidates in prior cycles. Trader consensus at 95% for Guthrie aligns with these structural factors, though an unforeseen development such as a late scandal, health event, or national political shift could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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