Recent forecast model runs from Environment Canada and the National Weather Service show a narrow range of possible overnight minimum temperatures in Toronto on September 1, with ensemble spreads centered near 19–22 °C. This uncertainty stems from variable low-level moisture, weak nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, and the position of a weak surface ridge limiting cold-air advection. Traders are pricing the highest probabilities around 20 °C because historical early-September climatology favors mild lows near 15–18 °C that have been elevated by recent above-average sea-surface temperatures in the lower Great Lakes. Official observations from Pearson International Airport will resolve the market once the calendar day ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on September 1?
24°C or higher 100%
21°C 82%
22°C 81%
23°C 81%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
14°C or below
8%
15°C
9%
16°C
14%
17°C
14%
18°C
80%
19°C
80%
20°C
57%
21°C
82%
22°C
81%
23°C
81%
24°C or higher
100%
24°C or higher 100%
21°C 82%
22°C 81%
23°C 81%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
14°C or below
$20 Vol.
8%
15°C
$145 Vol.
9%
16°C
$50 Vol.
14%
17°C
$51 Vol.
14%
18°C
$0 Vol.
80%
19°C
$0 Vol.
80%
20°C
$0 Vol.
57%
21°C
$0 Vol.
82%
22°C
$0 Vol.
81%
23°C
$85 Vol.
81%
24°C or higher
$100 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from Environment Canada and the National Weather Service show a narrow range of possible overnight minimum temperatures in Toronto on September 1, with ensemble spreads centered near 19–22 °C. This uncertainty stems from variable low-level moisture, weak nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, and the position of a weak surface ridge limiting cold-air advection. Traders are pricing the highest probabilities around 20 °C because historical early-September climatology favors mild lows near 15–18 °C that have been elevated by recent above-average sea-surface temperatures in the lower Great Lakes. Official observations from Pearson International Airport will resolve the market once the calendar day ends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$451End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from Environment Canada and the National Weather Service show a narrow range of possible overnight minimum temperatures in Toronto on September 1, with ensemble spreads centered near 19–22 °C. This uncertainty stems from variable low-level moisture, weak nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, and the position of a weak surface ridge limiting cold-air advection. Traders are pricing the highest probabilities around 20 °C because historical early-September climatology favors mild lows near 15–18 °C that have been elevated by recent above-average sea-surface temperatures in the lower Great Lakes. Official observations from Pearson International Airport will resolve the market once the calendar day ends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$451End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs from Environment Canada and the National Weather Service show a narrow range of possible overnight minimum temperatures in Toronto on September 1, with ensemble spreads centered near 19–22 °C. This uncertainty stems from variable low-level moisture, weak nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, and the position of a weak surface ridge limiting cold-air advection. Traders are pricing the highest probabilities around 20 °C because historical early-September climatology favors mild lows near 15–18 °C that have been elevated by recent above-average sea-surface temperatures in the lower Great Lakes. Official observations from Pearson International Airport will resolve the market once the calendar day ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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