Roseana Sarney (MDB) holds the clearest edge for first place in the October 4 Maranhão Senate contest, backed by her strong name recognition as a four-time former governor and consistent leads in recent polling. Surveys from Quaest in late August and Real Time Big Data in early September placed her at 16–21 percent in first-vote or consolidated scenarios, ahead of Lahesio Bonfim (NOVO), André Fufuca (PP), Weverton Rocha (PDT), and Eliziane Gama (PT), who clustered between 9–15 percent amid a field of 11 candidates. Roughly one-quarter of voters remain undecided or blank, leaving room for late shifts, though Sarney’s historical profile and alliances have kept her atop trader consensus for the top spot. The two-vote system for the state’s Senate seats adds complexity but has not altered her positioning in available data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRoseana Sarney 64%
Lahesio Bonfim 17.0%
Weverton Rocha 11.6%
Fufuca 5.1%
$27,504 Vol.
$27,504 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Roseana Sarney
62%
Lahesio Bonfim
19%
Weverton Rocha
12%
Fufuca
5%
Eliziane Gama
8%
Dr. Hilton Gonçalo
<1%
Raimundo Moreira
<1%
Simplício Araújo
<1%
Cidônio Gonçalves
<1%
Enilton Rodrigues
<1%
Wilson Leite
<1%
Roseana Sarney 64%
Lahesio Bonfim 17.0%
Weverton Rocha 11.6%
Fufuca 5.1%
$27,504 Vol.
$27,504 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Roseana Sarney
$17,388 Vol.
62%
Lahesio Bonfim
$4,124 Vol.
19%
Weverton Rocha
$2,327 Vol.
12%
Fufuca
$606 Vol.
5%
Eliziane Gama
$638 Vol.
8%
Dr. Hilton Gonçalo
$407 Vol.
<1%
Raimundo Moreira
$412 Vol.
<1%
Simplício Araújo
$372 Vol.
<1%
Cidônio Gonçalves
$415 Vol.
<1%
Enilton Rodrigues
$282 Vol.
<1%
Wilson Leite
$532 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Roseana Sarney (MDB) holds the clearest edge for first place in the October 4 Maranhão Senate contest, backed by her strong name recognition as a four-time former governor and consistent leads in recent polling. Surveys from Quaest in late August and Real Time Big Data in early September placed her at 16–21 percent in first-vote or consolidated scenarios, ahead of Lahesio Bonfim (NOVO), André Fufuca (PP), Weverton Rocha (PDT), and Eliziane Gama (PT), who clustered between 9–15 percent amid a field of 11 candidates. Roughly one-quarter of voters remain undecided or blank, leaving room for late shifts, though Sarney’s historical profile and alliances have kept her atop trader consensus for the top spot. The two-vote system for the state’s Senate seats adds complexity but has not altered her positioning in available data.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:00 AM ET
Volume
$27,504End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:00 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Roseana Sarney (MDB) holds the clearest edge for first place in the October 4 Maranhão Senate contest, backed by her strong name recognition as a four-time former governor and consistent leads in recent polling. Surveys from Quaest in late August and Real Time Big Data in early September placed her at 16–21 percent in first-vote or consolidated scenarios, ahead of Lahesio Bonfim (NOVO), André Fufuca (PP), Weverton Rocha (PDT), and Eliziane Gama (PT), who clustered between 9–15 percent amid a field of 11 candidates. Roughly one-quarter of voters remain undecided or blank, leaving room for late shifts, though Sarney’s historical profile and alliances have kept her atop trader consensus for the top spot. The two-vote system for the state’s Senate seats adds complexity but has not altered her positioning in available data.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$27,504End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:00 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Roseana Sarney (MDB) holds the clearest edge for first place in the October 4 Maranhão Senate contest, backed by her strong name recognition as a four-time former governor and consistent leads in recent polling. Surveys from Quaest in late August and Real Time Big Data in early September placed her at 16–21 percent in first-vote or consolidated scenarios, ahead of Lahesio Bonfim (NOVO), André Fufuca (PP), Weverton Rocha (PDT), and Eliziane Gama (PT), who clustered between 9–15 percent amid a field of 11 candidates. Roughly one-quarter of voters remain undecided or blank, leaving room for late shifts, though Sarney’s historical profile and alliances have kept her atop trader consensus for the top spot. The two-vote system for the state’s Senate seats adds complexity but has not altered her positioning in available data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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