Recent polling from INSA (early August) and Infratest dimap (early July) has placed the AfD at a steady 36 percent, ahead of the SPD on 29 percent, with the Left, CDU, and smaller parties trailing well behind. This stability over the past two months, combined with the September 20 election date now less than three weeks away, has anchored trader expectations around the mid-30s range. The SPD under Minister President Manuela Schwesig has narrowed the gap modestly in successive surveys, reflecting incremental gains for the incumbent coalition, yet remains short of overtaking the AfD. Other parties continue to fragment the remaining vote, leaving the AfD as the clear frontrunner for strongest force without an obvious path to a majority or coalition partners. The narrow spread between the 35-38 percent and 32-35 percent buckets mirrors this consistent polling band and the limited room for large late swings in a short campaign window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated35-38% 33%
32-35% 28%
<32% 24%
38%+ 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<32%
24%
32-35%
28%
35-38%
33%
38%+
21%
35-38% 33%
32-35% 28%
<32% 24%
38%+ 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<32%
$198 Vol.
24%
32-35%
$697 Vol.
28%
35-38%
$176 Vol.
33%
38%+
$223 Vol.
21%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling from INSA (early August) and Infratest dimap (early July) has placed the AfD at a steady 36 percent, ahead of the SPD on 29 percent, with the Left, CDU, and smaller parties trailing well behind. This stability over the past two months, combined with the September 20 election date now less than three weeks away, has anchored trader expectations around the mid-30s range. The SPD under Minister President Manuela Schwesig has narrowed the gap modestly in successive surveys, reflecting incremental gains for the incumbent coalition, yet remains short of overtaking the AfD. Other parties continue to fragment the remaining vote, leaving the AfD as the clear frontrunner for strongest force without an obvious path to a majority or coalition partners. The narrow spread between the 35-38 percent and 32-35 percent buckets mirrors this consistent polling band and the limited room for large late swings in a short campaign window.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Volume
$1,294End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling from INSA (early August) and Infratest dimap (early July) has placed the AfD at a steady 36 percent, ahead of the SPD on 29 percent, with the Left, CDU, and smaller parties trailing well behind. This stability over the past two months, combined with the September 20 election date now less than three weeks away, has anchored trader expectations around the mid-30s range. The SPD under Minister President Manuela Schwesig has narrowed the gap modestly in successive surveys, reflecting incremental gains for the incumbent coalition, yet remains short of overtaking the AfD. Other parties continue to fragment the remaining vote, leaving the AfD as the clear frontrunner for strongest force without an obvious path to a majority or coalition partners. The narrow spread between the 35-38 percent and 32-35 percent buckets mirrors this consistent polling band and the limited room for large late swings in a short campaign window.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$1,294End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from INSA (early August) and Infratest dimap (early July) has placed the AfD at a steady 36 percent, ahead of the SPD on 29 percent, with the Left, CDU, and smaller parties trailing well behind. This stability over the past two months, combined with the September 20 election date now less than three weeks away, has anchored trader expectations around the mid-30s range. The SPD under Minister President Manuela Schwesig has narrowed the gap modestly in successive surveys, reflecting incremental gains for the incumbent coalition, yet remains short of overtaking the AfD. Other parties continue to fragment the remaining vote, leaving the AfD as the clear frontrunner for strongest force without an obvious path to a majority or coalition partners. The narrow spread between the 35-38 percent and 32-35 percent buckets mirrors this consistent polling band and the limited room for large late swings in a short campaign window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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