**Recent late-August 2026 polling for the September 6 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election places the SPD in the 7–9% range, directly supporting the market’s leading 7–9% outcome at 52.5%.** The most recent surveys (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF: 9%; Infratest dimap for ARD: 8%; earlier Pollytix: 7%) show the party holding near or slightly above its 2021 result of 8.4%, with minor gains in the final weeks amid broader voter attention on blocking an AfD majority. SPD candidate Armin Willingmann’s campaign has emphasized continuity with the current CDU–SPD–FDP coalition and direct voter outreach, while smaller parties including the SPD highlight tactical voting to fragment the parliament and prevent an AfD-led government. Earlier 2026 INSA polls had the SPD closer to 5–6%, but the upward drift in the most recent fieldwork has consolidated trader expectations around the middle band. The 5–7% bucket (27.0%) and 9%+ bucket (19.4%) capture residual uncertainty from undecided voters (around 30% in some polls) and the final campaign push, yet current data give the 7–9% interval the clearest alignment with observed trends. No major SPD-specific developments have shifted this positioning in the past week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7-9% 53%
5-7% 27%
9%+ 19.5%
<5% 4%
$28,616 Vol.
$28,616 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
<5%
4%
5-7%
27%
7-9%
53%
9%+
20%
7-9% 53%
5-7% 27%
9%+ 19.5%
<5% 4%
$28,616 Vol.
$28,616 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
<5%
$5,849 Vol.
4%
5-7%
$7,758 Vol.
27%
7-9%
$9,234 Vol.
53%
9%+
$5,776 Vol.
20%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).**Recent late-August 2026 polling for the September 6 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election places the SPD in the 7–9% range, directly supporting the market’s leading 7–9% outcome at 52.5%.**
The most recent surveys (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF: 9%; Infratest dimap for ARD: 8%; earlier Pollytix: 7%) show the party holding near or slightly above its 2021 result of 8.4%, with minor gains in the final weeks amid broader voter attention on blocking an AfD majority. SPD candidate Armin Willingmann’s campaign has emphasized continuity with the current CDU–SPD–FDP coalition and direct voter outreach, while smaller parties including the SPD highlight tactical voting to fragment the parliament and prevent an AfD-led government.
Earlier 2026 INSA polls had the SPD closer to 5–6%, but the upward drift in the most recent fieldwork has consolidated trader expectations around the middle band. The 5–7% bucket (27.0%) and 9%+ bucket (19.4%) capture residual uncertainty from undecided voters (around 30% in some polls) and the final campaign push, yet current data give the 7–9% interval the clearest alignment with observed trends. No major SPD-specific developments have shifted this positioning in the past week.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:31 PM ET
Volume
$28,616End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).**Recent late-August 2026 polling for the September 6 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election places the SPD in the 7–9% range, directly supporting the market’s leading 7–9% outcome at 52.5%.**
The most recent surveys (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF: 9%; Infratest dimap for ARD: 8%; earlier Pollytix: 7%) show the party holding near or slightly above its 2021 result of 8.4%, with minor gains in the final weeks amid broader voter attention on blocking an AfD majority. SPD candidate Armin Willingmann’s campaign has emphasized continuity with the current CDU–SPD–FDP coalition and direct voter outreach, while smaller parties including the SPD highlight tactical voting to fragment the parliament and prevent an AfD-led government.
Earlier 2026 INSA polls had the SPD closer to 5–6%, but the upward drift in the most recent fieldwork has consolidated trader expectations around the middle band. The 5–7% bucket (27.0%) and 9%+ bucket (19.4%) capture residual uncertainty from undecided voters (around 30% in some polls) and the final campaign push, yet current data give the 7–9% interval the clearest alignment with observed trends. No major SPD-specific developments have shifted this positioning in the past week.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Volume
$28,616End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent late-August 2026 polling for the September 6 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election places the SPD in the 7–9% range, directly supporting the market’s leading 7–9% outcome at 52.5%.** The most recent surveys (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF: 9%; Infratest dimap for ARD: 8%; earlier Pollytix: 7%) show the party holding near or slightly above its 2021 result of 8.4%, with minor gains in the final weeks amid broader voter attention on blocking an AfD majority. SPD candidate Armin Willingmann’s campaign has emphasized continuity with the current CDU–SPD–FDP coalition and direct voter outreach, while smaller parties including the SPD highlight tactical voting to fragment the parliament and prevent an AfD-led government. Earlier 2026 INSA polls had the SPD closer to 5–6%, but the upward drift in the most recent fieldwork has consolidated trader expectations around the middle band. The 5–7% bucket (27.0%) and 9%+ bucket (19.4%) capture residual uncertainty from undecided voters (around 30% in some polls) and the final campaign push, yet current data give the 7–9% interval the clearest alignment with observed trends. No major SPD-specific developments have shifted this positioning in the past week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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