Peggy Flanagan holds a commanding position in the Minnesota Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean in statewide contests, her decisive August primary victory over Rep. Angie Craig, and the absence of a Republican Senate win since 2002. The open seat, vacated by retiring Sen. Tina Smith, has drawn limited GOP momentum despite fraud investigations that Republicans highlight to appeal to independents. Recent polls show Flanagan ahead by roughly 3–6 points, narrower than market pricing implies, with Tafoya benefiting from name recognition. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include late shifts in turnout among suburban voters, sustained focus on state-level scandals, or broader national Republican messaging on border security and spending. Election Day is November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMinnesota Senate Election Winner
Minnesota Senate Election Winner
$68,617 Vol.
$68,617 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Peggy Flanagan (D)
92%
Michele Tafoya (R)
9%
$68,617 Vol.
$68,617 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Peggy Flanagan (D)
$49,978 Vol.
92%
Michele Tafoya (R)
$18,639 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Peggy Flanagan holds a commanding position in the Minnesota Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean in statewide contests, her decisive August primary victory over Rep. Angie Craig, and the absence of a Republican Senate win since 2002. The open seat, vacated by retiring Sen. Tina Smith, has drawn limited GOP momentum despite fraud investigations that Republicans highlight to appeal to independents. Recent polls show Flanagan ahead by roughly 3–6 points, narrower than market pricing implies, with Tafoya benefiting from name recognition. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include late shifts in turnout among suburban voters, sustained focus on state-level scandals, or broader national Republican messaging on border security and spending. Election Day is November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
Volume
$68,617End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Peggy Flanagan holds a commanding position in the Minnesota Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean in statewide contests, her decisive August primary victory over Rep. Angie Craig, and the absence of a Republican Senate win since 2002. The open seat, vacated by retiring Sen. Tina Smith, has drawn limited GOP momentum despite fraud investigations that Republicans highlight to appeal to independents. Recent polls show Flanagan ahead by roughly 3–6 points, narrower than market pricing implies, with Tafoya benefiting from name recognition. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include late shifts in turnout among suburban voters, sustained focus on state-level scandals, or broader national Republican messaging on border security and spending. Election Day is November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$68,617End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Peggy Flanagan holds a commanding position in the Minnesota Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean in statewide contests, her decisive August primary victory over Rep. Angie Craig, and the absence of a Republican Senate win since 2002. The open seat, vacated by retiring Sen. Tina Smith, has drawn limited GOP momentum despite fraud investigations that Republicans highlight to appeal to independents. Recent polls show Flanagan ahead by roughly 3–6 points, narrower than market pricing implies, with Tafoya benefiting from name recognition. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include late shifts in turnout among suburban voters, sustained focus on state-level scandals, or broader national Republican messaging on border security and spending. Election Day is November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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