Incumbent Republican Brad Finstad holds a clear edge in Minnesota’s 1st congressional district, where the seat carries an R+6 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump carried the area by roughly 6.5–8 points in 2024. Both major-party nominees secured their nominations in the August 11 primaries, with Finstad defeating minor challengers and Democrat Jake Johnson prevailing comfortably. Limited polling and forecasting models project a Republican margin near double digits, consistent with the district’s rural southern Minnesota character and emphasis on agriculture. With the November 3 general election still two months away, trader pricing reflects the structural Republican advantage and Finstad’s incumbency while leaving room for shifts tied to turnout or national conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMN-01 House Election Winner
MN-01 House Election Winner
$41,478 Vol.
$41,478 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
87%
Democratic Party
12%
$41,478 Vol.
$41,478 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$15,628 Vol.
87%
Democratic Party
$26,095 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brad Finstad holds a clear edge in Minnesota’s 1st congressional district, where the seat carries an R+6 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump carried the area by roughly 6.5–8 points in 2024. Both major-party nominees secured their nominations in the August 11 primaries, with Finstad defeating minor challengers and Democrat Jake Johnson prevailing comfortably. Limited polling and forecasting models project a Republican margin near double digits, consistent with the district’s rural southern Minnesota character and emphasis on agriculture. With the November 3 general election still two months away, trader pricing reflects the structural Republican advantage and Finstad’s incumbency while leaving room for shifts tied to turnout or national conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$41,478End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brad Finstad holds a clear edge in Minnesota’s 1st congressional district, where the seat carries an R+6 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump carried the area by roughly 6.5–8 points in 2024. Both major-party nominees secured their nominations in the August 11 primaries, with Finstad defeating minor challengers and Democrat Jake Johnson prevailing comfortably. Limited polling and forecasting models project a Republican margin near double digits, consistent with the district’s rural southern Minnesota character and emphasis on agriculture. With the November 3 general election still two months away, trader pricing reflects the structural Republican advantage and Finstad’s incumbency while leaving room for shifts tied to turnout or national conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$41,478End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Brad Finstad holds a clear edge in Minnesota’s 1st congressional district, where the seat carries an R+6 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump carried the area by roughly 6.5–8 points in 2024. Both major-party nominees secured their nominations in the August 11 primaries, with Finstad defeating minor challengers and Democrat Jake Johnson prevailing comfortably. Limited polling and forecasting models project a Republican margin near double digits, consistent with the district’s rural southern Minnesota character and emphasis on agriculture. With the November 3 general election still two months away, trader pricing reflects the structural Republican advantage and Finstad’s incumbency while leaving room for shifts tied to turnout or national conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions