Recent polls for Israel's October 27 legislative election show minor lists such as Unity and Blue and White receiving well under 2% support and failing to approach the 3.25% electoral threshold. This stems from ongoing fragmentation in centrist and center-right blocs, with voters consolidating behind larger opposition parties like Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and the Bennett-Lapid Together alliance, while Benny Gantz’s National Unity remnants and similar small slates struggle for visibility after repeated splits and failed merger attempts. Candidate list submissions closed on September 8 with no evident late surge for Unity, locking in its marginal position. The 94% trader consensus on a sub-0.5% outcome reflects this structural weakness; shifts would require an unforeseen alliance or turnout anomaly within the final weeks before voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<0.5% 94.0%
0.5-0.75% 1.1%
0.75-1% <1%
1-2% <1%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<0.5%
94%
0.5-0.75%
1%
0.75-1%
1%
1-2%
1%
2%+
1%
<0.5% 94.0%
0.5-0.75% 1.1%
0.75-1% <1%
1-2% <1%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<0.5%
$366 Vol.
94%
0.5-0.75%
$162 Vol.
1%
0.75-1%
$109 Vol.
1%
1-2%
$112 Vol.
1%
2%+
$176 Vol.
1%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Unity party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Unity's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Unity passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Unity contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Unity merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls for Israel's October 27 legislative election show minor lists such as Unity and Blue and White receiving well under 2% support and failing to approach the 3.25% electoral threshold. This stems from ongoing fragmentation in centrist and center-right blocs, with voters consolidating behind larger opposition parties like Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and the Bennett-Lapid Together alliance, while Benny Gantz’s National Unity remnants and similar small slates struggle for visibility after repeated splits and failed merger attempts. Candidate list submissions closed on September 8 with no evident late surge for Unity, locking in its marginal position. The 94% trader consensus on a sub-0.5% outcome reflects this structural weakness; shifts would require an unforeseen alliance or turnout anomaly within the final weeks before voting.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Unity party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Unity's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Unity passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Unity contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Unity merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Unity party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Unity's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Unity passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Unity contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Unity merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Volume
$926End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Unity party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Unity's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Unity passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Unity contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Unity merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls for Israel's October 27 legislative election show minor lists such as Unity and Blue and White receiving well under 2% support and failing to approach the 3.25% electoral threshold. This stems from ongoing fragmentation in centrist and center-right blocs, with voters consolidating behind larger opposition parties like Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and the Bennett-Lapid Together alliance, while Benny Gantz’s National Unity remnants and similar small slates struggle for visibility after repeated splits and failed merger attempts. Candidate list submissions closed on September 8 with no evident late surge for Unity, locking in its marginal position. The 94% trader consensus on a sub-0.5% outcome reflects this structural weakness; shifts would require an unforeseen alliance or turnout anomaly within the final weeks before voting.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Unity party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Unity's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Unity passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Unity contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Unity merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Unity party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Unity's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Unity passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Unity contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Unity merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$926End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls for Israel's October 27 legislative election show minor lists such as Unity and Blue and White receiving well under 2% support and failing to approach the 3.25% electoral threshold. This stems from ongoing fragmentation in centrist and center-right blocs, with voters consolidating behind larger opposition parties like Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and the Bennett-Lapid Together alliance, while Benny Gantz’s National Unity remnants and similar small slates struggle for visibility after repeated splits and failed merger attempts. Candidate list submissions closed on September 8 with no evident late surge for Unity, locking in its marginal position. The 94% trader consensus on a sub-0.5% outcome reflects this structural weakness; shifts would require an unforeseen alliance or turnout anomaly within the final weeks before voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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