Ilhan Omar holds a commanding lead in Minnesota's 5th Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat's deep Democratic lean and her strong primary performance. The district, encompassing Minneapolis and surrounding areas, has delivered Democratic margins exceeding 50 points in recent cycles, with Omar securing the DFL nomination by more than 80% against multiple challengers on August 11. Republican nominee John Nagel, a retired police officer who won his primary, trails significantly in fundraising and lacks the voter base to overcome the structural tilt. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus at 98% for Omar aligns with these fundamentals, though late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan swing could theoretically narrow the gap before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMN-05 House Election Winner
MN-05 House Election Winner
$48,663 Vol.
$48,663 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Ilhan Omar (D)
98%
John Nagel (R)
1%
$48,663 Vol.
$48,663 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Ilhan Omar (D)
$18,221 Vol.
98%
John Nagel (R)
$30,442 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ilhan Omar holds a commanding lead in Minnesota's 5th Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat's deep Democratic lean and her strong primary performance. The district, encompassing Minneapolis and surrounding areas, has delivered Democratic margins exceeding 50 points in recent cycles, with Omar securing the DFL nomination by more than 80% against multiple challengers on August 11. Republican nominee John Nagel, a retired police officer who won his primary, trails significantly in fundraising and lacks the voter base to overcome the structural tilt. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus at 98% for Omar aligns with these fundamentals, though late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan swing could theoretically narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$48,663End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ilhan Omar holds a commanding lead in Minnesota's 5th Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat's deep Democratic lean and her strong primary performance. The district, encompassing Minneapolis and surrounding areas, has delivered Democratic margins exceeding 50 points in recent cycles, with Omar securing the DFL nomination by more than 80% against multiple challengers on August 11. Republican nominee John Nagel, a retired police officer who won his primary, trails significantly in fundraising and lacks the voter base to overcome the structural tilt. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus at 98% for Omar aligns with these fundamentals, though late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan swing could theoretically narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$48,663End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ilhan Omar holds a commanding lead in Minnesota's 5th Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat's deep Democratic lean and her strong primary performance. The district, encompassing Minneapolis and surrounding areas, has delivered Democratic margins exceeding 50 points in recent cycles, with Omar securing the DFL nomination by more than 80% against multiple challengers on August 11. Republican nominee John Nagel, a retired police officer who won his primary, trails significantly in fundraising and lacks the voter base to overcome the structural tilt. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus at 98% for Omar aligns with these fundamentals, though late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan swing could theoretically narrow the gap before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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