Redistricting enacted by Tennessee Republicans in May 2026 transformed the 9th District from a Democratic stronghold centered on Memphis into a Republican-leaning seat that favored Donald Trump by roughly 20 points in 2024, incorporating substantial new rural and suburban territory. This structural shift prompted longtime incumbent Steve Cohen to retire and positioned state Senator Brent Taylor, who secured the GOP nomination with Trump’s endorsement, as the clear frontrunner against state Representative Justin Pearson, the Democratic nominee. Recent internal polling shows Taylor holding a narrow lead in a contest that election forecasters rate as solidly Republican. Trader consensus reflected in the current prices aligns with the altered electorate and historical patterns in similarly redrawn districts, though high Democratic turnout in remaining Memphis precincts or unexpected national shifts before November 3 could still narrow the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTN-09 House Election Winner
TN-09 House Election Winner
$45,085 Vol.
$45,085 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Brent Taylor (R)
91%
Justin Pearson (D)
8%
$45,085 Vol.
$45,085 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Brent Taylor (R)
$24,821 Vol.
91%
Justin Pearson (D)
$20,264 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting enacted by Tennessee Republicans in May 2026 transformed the 9th District from a Democratic stronghold centered on Memphis into a Republican-leaning seat that favored Donald Trump by roughly 20 points in 2024, incorporating substantial new rural and suburban territory. This structural shift prompted longtime incumbent Steve Cohen to retire and positioned state Senator Brent Taylor, who secured the GOP nomination with Trump’s endorsement, as the clear frontrunner against state Representative Justin Pearson, the Democratic nominee. Recent internal polling shows Taylor holding a narrow lead in a contest that election forecasters rate as solidly Republican. Trader consensus reflected in the current prices aligns with the altered electorate and historical patterns in similarly redrawn districts, though high Democratic turnout in remaining Memphis precincts or unexpected national shifts before November 3 could still narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$45,085End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting enacted by Tennessee Republicans in May 2026 transformed the 9th District from a Democratic stronghold centered on Memphis into a Republican-leaning seat that favored Donald Trump by roughly 20 points in 2024, incorporating substantial new rural and suburban territory. This structural shift prompted longtime incumbent Steve Cohen to retire and positioned state Senator Brent Taylor, who secured the GOP nomination with Trump’s endorsement, as the clear frontrunner against state Representative Justin Pearson, the Democratic nominee. Recent internal polling shows Taylor holding a narrow lead in a contest that election forecasters rate as solidly Republican. Trader consensus reflected in the current prices aligns with the altered electorate and historical patterns in similarly redrawn districts, though high Democratic turnout in remaining Memphis precincts or unexpected national shifts before November 3 could still narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$45,085End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting enacted by Tennessee Republicans in May 2026 transformed the 9th District from a Democratic stronghold centered on Memphis into a Republican-leaning seat that favored Donald Trump by roughly 20 points in 2024, incorporating substantial new rural and suburban territory. This structural shift prompted longtime incumbent Steve Cohen to retire and positioned state Senator Brent Taylor, who secured the GOP nomination with Trump’s endorsement, as the clear frontrunner against state Representative Justin Pearson, the Democratic nominee. Recent internal polling shows Taylor holding a narrow lead in a contest that election forecasters rate as solidly Republican. Trader consensus reflected in the current prices aligns with the altered electorate and historical patterns in similarly redrawn districts, though high Democratic turnout in remaining Memphis precincts or unexpected national shifts before November 3 could still narrow the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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