**Incumbent Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor holds a clear edge in Florida’s 14th congressional district heading into the November 3 general election.** The seat was redrawn in mid-decade redistricting that shifted it toward Republicans—Donald Trump carried the new lines by 11 points in 2024—yet July polling showed Castor leading Republican nominee Mike Beltran 46% to 38%. Castor, first elected in 2007 and unopposed in her primary, benefits from high name recognition and established fundraising in the Tampa Bay area. Beltran, a former state representative, won a crowded August 18 Republican primary but faces the challenge of building broad support in a district that remains competitive. Mixed race ratings from forecasters reflect this tension between the map’s partisan lean and the incumbent’s structural advantages, which appear to underpin the current trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-14 House Election Winner
FL-14 House Election Winner
$40,906 Vol.
$40,906 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
65%
Republican Party
33%
$40,906 Vol.
$40,906 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$21,503 Vol.
65%
Republican Party
$19,404 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor holds a clear edge in Florida’s 14th congressional district heading into the November 3 general election.** The seat was redrawn in mid-decade redistricting that shifted it toward Republicans—Donald Trump carried the new lines by 11 points in 2024—yet July polling showed Castor leading Republican nominee Mike Beltran 46% to 38%. Castor, first elected in 2007 and unopposed in her primary, benefits from high name recognition and established fundraising in the Tampa Bay area. Beltran, a former state representative, won a crowded August 18 Republican primary but faces the challenge of building broad support in a district that remains competitive. Mixed race ratings from forecasters reflect this tension between the map’s partisan lean and the incumbent’s structural advantages, which appear to underpin the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Volume
$40,906End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor holds a clear edge in Florida’s 14th congressional district heading into the November 3 general election.** The seat was redrawn in mid-decade redistricting that shifted it toward Republicans—Donald Trump carried the new lines by 11 points in 2024—yet July polling showed Castor leading Republican nominee Mike Beltran 46% to 38%. Castor, first elected in 2007 and unopposed in her primary, benefits from high name recognition and established fundraising in the Tampa Bay area. Beltran, a former state representative, won a crowded August 18 Republican primary but faces the challenge of building broad support in a district that remains competitive. Mixed race ratings from forecasters reflect this tension between the map’s partisan lean and the incumbent’s structural advantages, which appear to underpin the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$40,906End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor holds a clear edge in Florida’s 14th congressional district heading into the November 3 general election.** The seat was redrawn in mid-decade redistricting that shifted it toward Republicans—Donald Trump carried the new lines by 11 points in 2024—yet July polling showed Castor leading Republican nominee Mike Beltran 46% to 38%. Castor, first elected in 2007 and unopposed in her primary, benefits from high name recognition and established fundraising in the Tampa Bay area. Beltran, a former state representative, won a crowded August 18 Republican primary but faces the challenge of building broad support in a district that remains competitive. Mixed race ratings from forecasters reflect this tension between the map’s partisan lean and the incumbent’s structural advantages, which appear to underpin the current trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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