Incumbent Republican Jeff Van Drew holds a strong position in New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District ahead of the November 3 general election, reflected in the market’s 83.5% consensus for his victory. The district has supported Republican candidates by double-digit margins in recent cycles, including a 13-point Trump win in 2024, and carries a Solid Republican rating from the Cook Political Report. Van Drew, who switched parties in 2019 and remains unopposed in his primary, benefits from incumbency and local name recognition. Democrat Zack Mullock, Cape May mayor, secured his party’s nomination in the June 2 primary with roughly 40% against three challengers but faces structural headwinds in a district that has favored Republicans consistently. An independent candidate adds minor ballot fragmentation. Recent primary outcomes and the absence of major shifts since June have reinforced trader expectations of limited competitiveness.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-02 House Election Winner
NJ-02 House Election Winner
$26,750 Vol.
$26,750 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Jeff Van Drew (R)
84%
Zack Mullock (D)
13%
$26,750 Vol.
$26,750 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Jeff Van Drew (R)
$13,570 Vol.
84%
Zack Mullock (D)
$13,180 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jeff Van Drew holds a strong position in New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District ahead of the November 3 general election, reflected in the market’s 83.5% consensus for his victory. The district has supported Republican candidates by double-digit margins in recent cycles, including a 13-point Trump win in 2024, and carries a Solid Republican rating from the Cook Political Report. Van Drew, who switched parties in 2019 and remains unopposed in his primary, benefits from incumbency and local name recognition. Democrat Zack Mullock, Cape May mayor, secured his party’s nomination in the June 2 primary with roughly 40% against three challengers but faces structural headwinds in a district that has favored Republicans consistently. An independent candidate adds minor ballot fragmentation. Recent primary outcomes and the absence of major shifts since June have reinforced trader expectations of limited competitiveness.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$26,750End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jeff Van Drew holds a strong position in New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District ahead of the November 3 general election, reflected in the market’s 83.5% consensus for his victory. The district has supported Republican candidates by double-digit margins in recent cycles, including a 13-point Trump win in 2024, and carries a Solid Republican rating from the Cook Political Report. Van Drew, who switched parties in 2019 and remains unopposed in his primary, benefits from incumbency and local name recognition. Democrat Zack Mullock, Cape May mayor, secured his party’s nomination in the June 2 primary with roughly 40% against three challengers but faces structural headwinds in a district that has favored Republicans consistently. An independent candidate adds minor ballot fragmentation. Recent primary outcomes and the absence of major shifts since June have reinforced trader expectations of limited competitiveness.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,750End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jeff Van Drew holds a strong position in New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District ahead of the November 3 general election, reflected in the market’s 83.5% consensus for his victory. The district has supported Republican candidates by double-digit margins in recent cycles, including a 13-point Trump win in 2024, and carries a Solid Republican rating from the Cook Political Report. Van Drew, who switched parties in 2019 and remains unopposed in his primary, benefits from incumbency and local name recognition. Democrat Zack Mullock, Cape May mayor, secured his party’s nomination in the June 2 primary with roughly 40% against three challengers but faces structural headwinds in a district that has favored Republicans consistently. An independent candidate adds minor ballot fragmentation. Recent primary outcomes and the absence of major shifts since June have reinforced trader expectations of limited competitiveness.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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