Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would arrive in roughly ten days has anchored trader consensus around mid-September dates, with the largest implied probabilities clustered on September 12–17. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained on supplemental SpaceX engineering data and positioned as an upgrade to the August 12 Grok 4.6 release in every capability except inference speed, reflects xAI’s aggressive monthly cadence. Past timeline revisions—shifting from late August targets to the current window—introduce realistic slippage risk, while competitive pressure from Anthropic and OpenAI keeps the exact launch day fluid. Market-implied odds therefore favor the coming week but spread across several adjacent dates to account for final testing, API rollout, and any last-minute adjustments typical in large language model deployments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 16 35.5%
September 17 34.2%
September 12 30.9%
September 18 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
September 10
1%
September 11
24%
September 12
31%
September 13
1%
September 14
26%
September 15
28%
September 16
36%
September 17
34%
September 18
30%
September 19
1%
September 20
1%
September 21
1%
September 22
3%
September 23
6%
September 24
3%
September 25
1%
September 26
<1%
September 27
<1%
September 28
7%
September 29
1%
September 30
1%
No release by September 30
2%
September 16 35.5%
September 17 34.2%
September 12 30.9%
September 18 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
September 10
$202 Vol.
1%
September 11
$308 Vol.
24%
September 12
$550 Vol.
31%
September 13
$322 Vol.
1%
September 14
$205 Vol.
26%
September 15
$257 Vol.
28%
September 16
$215 Vol.
36%
September 17
$215 Vol.
34%
September 18
$411 Vol.
30%
September 19
$530 Vol.
1%
September 20
$505 Vol.
1%
September 21
$505 Vol.
1%
September 22
$345 Vol.
3%
September 23
$572 Vol.
6%
September 24
$345 Vol.
3%
September 25
$505 Vol.
1%
September 26
$505 Vol.
<1%
September 27
$505 Vol.
<1%
September 28
$379 Vol.
7%
September 29
$379 Vol.
1%
September 30
$505 Vol.
1%
No release by September 30
$345 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would arrive in roughly ten days has anchored trader consensus around mid-September dates, with the largest implied probabilities clustered on September 12–17. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained on supplemental SpaceX engineering data and positioned as an upgrade to the August 12 Grok 4.6 release in every capability except inference speed, reflects xAI’s aggressive monthly cadence. Past timeline revisions—shifting from late August targets to the current window—introduce realistic slippage risk, while competitive pressure from Anthropic and OpenAI keeps the exact launch day fluid. Market-implied odds therefore favor the coming week but spread across several adjacent dates to account for final testing, API rollout, and any last-minute adjustments typical in large language model deployments.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
Volume
$8,777End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would arrive in roughly ten days has anchored trader consensus around mid-September dates, with the largest implied probabilities clustered on September 12–17. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained on supplemental SpaceX engineering data and positioned as an upgrade to the August 12 Grok 4.6 release in every capability except inference speed, reflects xAI’s aggressive monthly cadence. Past timeline revisions—shifting from late August targets to the current window—introduce realistic slippage risk, while competitive pressure from Anthropic and OpenAI keeps the exact launch day fluid. Market-implied odds therefore favor the coming week but spread across several adjacent dates to account for final testing, API rollout, and any last-minute adjustments typical in large language model deployments.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,777End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would arrive in roughly ten days has anchored trader consensus around mid-September dates, with the largest implied probabilities clustered on September 12–17. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained on supplemental SpaceX engineering data and positioned as an upgrade to the August 12 Grok 4.6 release in every capability except inference speed, reflects xAI’s aggressive monthly cadence. Past timeline revisions—shifting from late August targets to the current window—introduce realistic slippage risk, while competitive pressure from Anthropic and OpenAI keeps the exact launch day fluid. Market-implied odds therefore favor the coming week but spread across several adjacent dates to account for final testing, API rollout, and any last-minute adjustments typical in large language model deployments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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