Meta’s Watermelon frontier large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, with internal July updates from AI chief Alexandr Wang citing benchmark parity to OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 achieved through roughly 10x the compute of predecessor Muse Spark (Avocado). Credible reporting from August identified an internal October target, aligning with Meta’s September 2 roadmap announcement of “bigger models” alongside the Muse Spark 1.3 release that narrowed gaps in coding and agentic tasks. Heavy infrastructure spending and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic continue to shape timelines, though no public release date or independent verification has emerged. Traders are watching for any confirmation of a late-2026 launch window or further delays typical in frontier scaling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
6%
October 31
59%
November 30
79%
$4,160 Vol.
September 30
$2,913 Vol.
6%
October 31
$1,046 Vol.
59%
November 30
$201 Vol.
79%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s Watermelon frontier large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, with internal July updates from AI chief Alexandr Wang citing benchmark parity to OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 achieved through roughly 10x the compute of predecessor Muse Spark (Avocado). Credible reporting from August identified an internal October target, aligning with Meta’s September 2 roadmap announcement of “bigger models” alongside the Muse Spark 1.3 release that narrowed gaps in coding and agentic tasks. Heavy infrastructure spending and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic continue to shape timelines, though no public release date or independent verification has emerged. Traders are watching for any confirmation of a late-2026 launch window or further delays typical in frontier scaling.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$4,160End Date
Nov 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s Watermelon frontier large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, with internal July updates from AI chief Alexandr Wang citing benchmark parity to OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 achieved through roughly 10x the compute of predecessor Muse Spark (Avocado). Credible reporting from August identified an internal October target, aligning with Meta’s September 2 roadmap announcement of “bigger models” alongside the Muse Spark 1.3 release that narrowed gaps in coding and agentic tasks. Heavy infrastructure spending and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic continue to shape timelines, though no public release date or independent verification has emerged. Traders are watching for any confirmation of a late-2026 launch window or further delays typical in frontier scaling.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,160End Date
Nov 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Meta’s Watermelon frontier large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, with internal July updates from AI chief Alexandr Wang citing benchmark parity to OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 achieved through roughly 10x the compute of predecessor Muse Spark (Avocado). Credible reporting from August identified an internal October target, aligning with Meta’s September 2 roadmap announcement of “bigger models” alongside the Muse Spark 1.3 release that narrowed gaps in coding and agentic tasks. Heavy infrastructure spending and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic continue to shape timelines, though no public release date or independent verification has emerged. Traders are watching for any confirmation of a late-2026 launch window or further delays typical in frontier scaling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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