Meta's accelerated Muse Spark release cadence, with version 1.3 shipping September 2 via the Meta Model API and Muse Code, drives current trader sentiment on whether a 1.4+ iteration reaches the public by late September or October. The update delivered gains in long-horizon agentic tasks and coding efficiency—fewer tool calls and tokens than 1.2—while maintaining a 1M-token context window and multimodal support, positioning it competitively against OpenAI and Anthropic models on benchmarks like DeepSWE. CEO commentary highlighted "frontier performance almost too cheap to meter" and teased a larger "Watermelon" model plus open-weights releases. Historical monthly-ish spacing since the April debut and Meta Superintelligence Labs' focus on paid developer APIs suggest potential for another iteration soon, though safety testing and roadmap priorities introduce timing uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$12,480 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
18%
October 31
73%
$12,480 Vol.
September 30
$7,793 Vol.
18%
October 31
$4,687 Vol.
73%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's accelerated Muse Spark release cadence, with version 1.3 shipping September 2 via the Meta Model API and Muse Code, drives current trader sentiment on whether a 1.4+ iteration reaches the public by late September or October. The update delivered gains in long-horizon agentic tasks and coding efficiency—fewer tool calls and tokens than 1.2—while maintaining a 1M-token context window and multimodal support, positioning it competitively against OpenAI and Anthropic models on benchmarks like DeepSWE. CEO commentary highlighted "frontier performance almost too cheap to meter" and teased a larger "Watermelon" model plus open-weights releases. Historical monthly-ish spacing since the April debut and Meta Superintelligence Labs' focus on paid developer APIs suggest potential for another iteration soon, though safety testing and roadmap priorities introduce timing uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 10:28 AM ET
Volume
$12,480End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 10:28 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's accelerated Muse Spark release cadence, with version 1.3 shipping September 2 via the Meta Model API and Muse Code, drives current trader sentiment on whether a 1.4+ iteration reaches the public by late September or October. The update delivered gains in long-horizon agentic tasks and coding efficiency—fewer tool calls and tokens than 1.2—while maintaining a 1M-token context window and multimodal support, positioning it competitively against OpenAI and Anthropic models on benchmarks like DeepSWE. CEO commentary highlighted "frontier performance almost too cheap to meter" and teased a larger "Watermelon" model plus open-weights releases. Historical monthly-ish spacing since the April debut and Meta Superintelligence Labs' focus on paid developer APIs suggest potential for another iteration soon, though safety testing and roadmap priorities introduce timing uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$12,480End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 10:28 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Meta's accelerated Muse Spark release cadence, with version 1.3 shipping September 2 via the Meta Model API and Muse Code, drives current trader sentiment on whether a 1.4+ iteration reaches the public by late September or October. The update delivered gains in long-horizon agentic tasks and coding efficiency—fewer tool calls and tokens than 1.2—while maintaining a 1M-token context window and multimodal support, positioning it competitively against OpenAI and Anthropic models on benchmarks like DeepSWE. CEO commentary highlighted "frontier performance almost too cheap to meter" and teased a larger "Watermelon" model plus open-weights releases. Historical monthly-ish spacing since the April debut and Meta Superintelligence Labs' focus on paid developer APIs suggest potential for another iteration soon, though safety testing and roadmap priorities introduce timing uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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