Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination in June 2026 for New York’s 12th Congressional District after winning a crowded primary to succeed retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, positioning him as the clear frontrunner in a seat rated solidly Democratic by multiple forecasters. The Manhattan-based district features a heavily Democratic voter base, with registered Democrats outnumbering Republicans by more than six to one, limiting the viability of Republican nominee Caroline Shinkle despite her uncontested primary. Lasher benefited from endorsements by party leaders and significant outside spending in the primary. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors, though late developments such as major scandals, health issues, or unusually low Democratic turnout could still alter the outcome before the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-12 House Election Winner
NY-12 House Election Winner
$32,897 Vol.
$32,897 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Micah Lasher (D)
97%
Caroline Shinkle (R)
<1%
$32,897 Vol.
$32,897 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Micah Lasher (D)
$17,262 Vol.
97%
Caroline Shinkle (R)
$15,635 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination in June 2026 for New York’s 12th Congressional District after winning a crowded primary to succeed retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, positioning him as the clear frontrunner in a seat rated solidly Democratic by multiple forecasters. The Manhattan-based district features a heavily Democratic voter base, with registered Democrats outnumbering Republicans by more than six to one, limiting the viability of Republican nominee Caroline Shinkle despite her uncontested primary. Lasher benefited from endorsements by party leaders and significant outside spending in the primary. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors, though late developments such as major scandals, health issues, or unusually low Democratic turnout could still alter the outcome before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$32,897End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination in June 2026 for New York’s 12th Congressional District after winning a crowded primary to succeed retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, positioning him as the clear frontrunner in a seat rated solidly Democratic by multiple forecasters. The Manhattan-based district features a heavily Democratic voter base, with registered Democrats outnumbering Republicans by more than six to one, limiting the viability of Republican nominee Caroline Shinkle despite her uncontested primary. Lasher benefited from endorsements by party leaders and significant outside spending in the primary. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors, though late developments such as major scandals, health issues, or unusually low Democratic turnout could still alter the outcome before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,897End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination in June 2026 for New York’s 12th Congressional District after winning a crowded primary to succeed retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, positioning him as the clear frontrunner in a seat rated solidly Democratic by multiple forecasters. The Manhattan-based district features a heavily Democratic voter base, with registered Democrats outnumbering Republicans by more than six to one, limiting the viability of Republican nominee Caroline Shinkle despite her uncontested primary. Lasher benefited from endorsements by party leaders and significant outside spending in the primary. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors, though late developments such as major scandals, health issues, or unusually low Democratic turnout could still alter the outcome before the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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