Incumbent Ritchie Torres secured a commanding 72% in the June 2026 Democratic primary for New York’s 15th Congressional District, defeating challengers Michael Blake and Jose Vega in the Bronx-based seat. This outcome, combined with the district’s long-standing Democratic lean and Cook Political Report “Solid Democratic” rating, underpins trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Torres has held the seat since 2021 and won reelection in 2024 by a wide margin. The Republican nominee, Stylo Sapaskis, and minor-party candidates including Andre Easton face structural barriers in a constituency with limited crossover voting history. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan swing could still shift probabilities before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-15 House Election Winner
NY-15 House Election Winner
$47,081 Vol.
$47,081 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Ritchie Torres (D)
98%
Stylo Sapaskis (R)
<1%
$47,081 Vol.
$47,081 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Ritchie Torres (D)
$27,077 Vol.
98%
Stylo Sapaskis (R)
$20,004 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Ritchie Torres secured a commanding 72% in the June 2026 Democratic primary for New York’s 15th Congressional District, defeating challengers Michael Blake and Jose Vega in the Bronx-based seat. This outcome, combined with the district’s long-standing Democratic lean and Cook Political Report “Solid Democratic” rating, underpins trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Torres has held the seat since 2021 and won reelection in 2024 by a wide margin. The Republican nominee, Stylo Sapaskis, and minor-party candidates including Andre Easton face structural barriers in a constituency with limited crossover voting history. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan swing could still shift probabilities before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$47,081End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Ritchie Torres secured a commanding 72% in the June 2026 Democratic primary for New York’s 15th Congressional District, defeating challengers Michael Blake and Jose Vega in the Bronx-based seat. This outcome, combined with the district’s long-standing Democratic lean and Cook Political Report “Solid Democratic” rating, underpins trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Torres has held the seat since 2021 and won reelection in 2024 by a wide margin. The Republican nominee, Stylo Sapaskis, and minor-party candidates including Andre Easton face structural barriers in a constituency with limited crossover voting history. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan swing could still shift probabilities before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$47,081End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Ritchie Torres secured a commanding 72% in the June 2026 Democratic primary for New York’s 15th Congressional District, defeating challengers Michael Blake and Jose Vega in the Bronx-based seat. This outcome, combined with the district’s long-standing Democratic lean and Cook Political Report “Solid Democratic” rating, underpins trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Torres has held the seat since 2021 and won reelection in 2024 by a wide margin. The Republican nominee, Stylo Sapaskis, and minor-party candidates including Andre Easton face structural barriers in a constituency with limited crossover voting history. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan swing could still shift probabilities before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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