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icon for NY-21 House Election Winner
Politics·Nov 4 Elections

NY-21 House Election Winner

icon for NY-21 House Election Winner
Politics·Nov 4 Elections

NY-21 House Election Winner

Polymarket

$68,939 Vol.

Polymarket

$68,939 Vol.

Anthony Constantino (R)

$34,359 Vol.

75%

Blake Gendebien (D)

$34,580 Vol.

23%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Anthony Constantino secured the Republican nomination for New York’s 21st Congressional District in June 2026 after defeating state Assemblymember Robert Smullen with Trump’s endorsement and heavy self-funding, while dairy farmer Blake Gendebien won the Democratic primary. The open seat, vacated by Elise Stefanik, sits in a district Trump carried by roughly 20 points in 2024, giving Constantino structural advantages in a midterm environment. Mixed polling since the primaries, including a J.L. Partners survey showing Constantino ahead by double digits and an earlier internal Democratic poll near a tie, has not overcome the district’s partisan baseline or Constantino’s resource edge. Traders price Constantino at 74.5% implied probability, reflecting these fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$68,939
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Anthony Constantino secured the Republican nomination for New York’s 21st Congressional District in June 2026 after defeating state Assemblymember Robert Smullen with Trump’s endorsement and heavy self-funding, while dairy farmer Blake Gendebien won the Democratic primary. The open seat, vacated by Elise Stefanik, sits in a district Trump carried by roughly 20 points in 2024, giving Constantino structural advantages in a midterm environment. Mixed polling since the primaries, including a J.L. Partners survey showing Constantino ahead by double digits and an earlier internal Democratic poll near a tie, has not overcome the district’s partisan baseline or Constantino’s resource edge. Traders price Constantino at 74.5% implied probability, reflecting these fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$68,939
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-21 House Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthony Constantino (R)" at 75%, followed by "Blake Gendebien (D)" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 75¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-21 House Election Winner" has generated $68.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-21 House Election Winner," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-21 House Election Winner" is "Anthony Constantino (R)" at 75%, meaning the market assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Blake Gendebien (D)" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-21 House Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.