Oklahoma's solidly Republican electorate and open Senate seat underpin the market's strong preference for Kevin Hern. The state has not elected a Democrat to the chamber since 1990, and recent presidential results reflect a consistent 30-plus-point GOP advantage. Hern, a four-term U.S. Representative, secured the Republican nomination with roughly 70 percent of the primary vote after receiving an early endorsement from President Trump; Democratic nominee N’Kiyla Thomas, a nurse and self-described democratic socialist, prevailed in her party's August runoff but faces structural headwinds in a state with more than a 2-to-1 Republican registration edge. Limited polling shows Hern ahead by 20 points or more. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or sharp national shift could narrow the gap, though none have materialized to date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$20,648 Vol.
$20,648 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Kevin Hern (R)
95%
N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas (D)
4%
$20,648 Vol.
$20,648 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Kevin Hern (R)
$14,066 Vol.
95%
N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas (D)
$6,582 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Oklahoma's solidly Republican electorate and open Senate seat underpin the market's strong preference for Kevin Hern. The state has not elected a Democrat to the chamber since 1990, and recent presidential results reflect a consistent 30-plus-point GOP advantage. Hern, a four-term U.S. Representative, secured the Republican nomination with roughly 70 percent of the primary vote after receiving an early endorsement from President Trump; Democratic nominee N’Kiyla Thomas, a nurse and self-described democratic socialist, prevailed in her party's August runoff but faces structural headwinds in a state with more than a 2-to-1 Republican registration edge. Limited polling shows Hern ahead by 20 points or more. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or sharp national shift could narrow the gap, though none have materialized to date.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$20,648End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Oklahoma's solidly Republican electorate and open Senate seat underpin the market's strong preference for Kevin Hern. The state has not elected a Democrat to the chamber since 1990, and recent presidential results reflect a consistent 30-plus-point GOP advantage. Hern, a four-term U.S. Representative, secured the Republican nomination with roughly 70 percent of the primary vote after receiving an early endorsement from President Trump; Democratic nominee N’Kiyla Thomas, a nurse and self-described democratic socialist, prevailed in her party's August runoff but faces structural headwinds in a state with more than a 2-to-1 Republican registration edge. Limited polling shows Hern ahead by 20 points or more. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or sharp national shift could narrow the gap, though none have materialized to date.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$20,648End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oklahoma's solidly Republican electorate and open Senate seat underpin the market's strong preference for Kevin Hern. The state has not elected a Democrat to the chamber since 1990, and recent presidential results reflect a consistent 30-plus-point GOP advantage. Hern, a four-term U.S. Representative, secured the Republican nomination with roughly 70 percent of the primary vote after receiving an early endorsement from President Trump; Democratic nominee N’Kiyla Thomas, a nurse and self-described democratic socialist, prevailed in her party's August runoff but faces structural headwinds in a state with more than a 2-to-1 Republican registration edge. Limited polling shows Hern ahead by 20 points or more. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or sharp national shift could narrow the gap, though none have materialized to date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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