OPEC's continued coordination among core producers, including recent August 2026 production quota adjustments and reaffirmations of market stability commitments by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others, underpins the 96.9% trader consensus against dissolution by year-end. Despite the UAE's May exit, Angola's prior departure, and Venezuela's reported deliberations over leaving, the group maintains regular ministerial meetings and output management mechanisms that have endured prior membership changes. Key members retain strong incentives to preserve collective leverage over global supply amid ongoing recovery from regional disruptions. Full dissolution in the remaining months would require coordinated withdrawals by multiple major producers or a sudden institutional collapse, scenarios without current evidence and viewed as low-probability tail risks by market participants.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
3% chance
$34,759 Vol.
$34,759 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$34,759 Vol.
$34,759 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC's continued coordination among core producers, including recent August 2026 production quota adjustments and reaffirmations of market stability commitments by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others, underpins the 96.9% trader consensus against dissolution by year-end. Despite the UAE's May exit, Angola's prior departure, and Venezuela's reported deliberations over leaving, the group maintains regular ministerial meetings and output management mechanisms that have endured prior membership changes. Key members retain strong incentives to preserve collective leverage over global supply amid ongoing recovery from regional disruptions. Full dissolution in the remaining months would require coordinated withdrawals by multiple major producers or a sudden institutional collapse, scenarios without current evidence and viewed as low-probability tail risks by market participants.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$34,759End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC's continued coordination among core producers, including recent August 2026 production quota adjustments and reaffirmations of market stability commitments by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others, underpins the 96.9% trader consensus against dissolution by year-end. Despite the UAE's May exit, Angola's prior departure, and Venezuela's reported deliberations over leaving, the group maintains regular ministerial meetings and output management mechanisms that have endured prior membership changes. Key members retain strong incentives to preserve collective leverage over global supply amid ongoing recovery from regional disruptions. Full dissolution in the remaining months would require coordinated withdrawals by multiple major producers or a sudden institutional collapse, scenarios without current evidence and viewed as low-probability tail risks by market participants.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$34,759End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OPEC's continued coordination among core producers, including recent August 2026 production quota adjustments and reaffirmations of market stability commitments by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others, underpins the 96.9% trader consensus against dissolution by year-end. Despite the UAE's May exit, Angola's prior departure, and Venezuela's reported deliberations over leaving, the group maintains regular ministerial meetings and output management mechanisms that have endured prior membership changes. Key members retain strong incentives to preserve collective leverage over global supply amid ongoing recovery from regional disruptions. Full dissolution in the remaining months would require coordinated withdrawals by multiple major producers or a sudden institutional collapse, scenarios without current evidence and viewed as low-probability tail risks by market participants.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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