Recent polling shows a tight four-way contest for Paraná's two Senate seats on October 4, with Deltan Dallagnol, Alexandre Curi, Filipe Barros, and Gleisi Hoffmann separated by just a few points within the margin of error. This positioning sustains elevated implied probabilities for multiple candidates finishing second, as each draws distinct regional and ideological support while undecided voters remain high. The recent TSE suspension of Dallagnol's campaign activities, while leaving his name on the ballot, adds uncertainty that could shift late momentum. Further separation may hinge on final-week turnout among conservative and center-right blocs, resolution of pending candidacy challenges, and any remaining debates or endorsements that consolidate preferences ahead of the dual-vote system.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFilipe Barros 44%
Alexandre Curi 26%
Deltan Dallagnol 16%
Gleisi 13.3%
$36,169 Vol.
$36,169 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Filipe Barros
47%
Alexandre Curi
26%
Deltan Dallagnol
10%
Gleisi
13%
Cristina Reis Graeml
4%
Marcelo Marcelino
<1%
Dr. Rosinha
<1%
Joaquim do MLB
<1%
Karen Guerreiro
<1%
Filipe Barros 44%
Alexandre Curi 26%
Deltan Dallagnol 16%
Gleisi 13.3%
$36,169 Vol.
$36,169 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Filipe Barros
$12,424 Vol.
47%
Alexandre Curi
$5,636 Vol.
26%
Deltan Dallagnol
$8,274 Vol.
10%
Gleisi
$5,464 Vol.
13%
Cristina Reis Graeml
$1,853 Vol.
4%
Marcelo Marcelino
$673 Vol.
<1%
Dr. Rosinha
$574 Vol.
<1%
Joaquim do MLB
$712 Vol.
<1%
Karen Guerreiro
$560 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling shows a tight four-way contest for Paraná's two Senate seats on October 4, with Deltan Dallagnol, Alexandre Curi, Filipe Barros, and Gleisi Hoffmann separated by just a few points within the margin of error. This positioning sustains elevated implied probabilities for multiple candidates finishing second, as each draws distinct regional and ideological support while undecided voters remain high. The recent TSE suspension of Dallagnol's campaign activities, while leaving his name on the ballot, adds uncertainty that could shift late momentum. Further separation may hinge on final-week turnout among conservative and center-right blocs, resolution of pending candidacy challenges, and any remaining debates or endorsements that consolidate preferences ahead of the dual-vote system.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volume
$36,169End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling shows a tight four-way contest for Paraná's two Senate seats on October 4, with Deltan Dallagnol, Alexandre Curi, Filipe Barros, and Gleisi Hoffmann separated by just a few points within the margin of error. This positioning sustains elevated implied probabilities for multiple candidates finishing second, as each draws distinct regional and ideological support while undecided voters remain high. The recent TSE suspension of Dallagnol's campaign activities, while leaving his name on the ballot, adds uncertainty that could shift late momentum. Further separation may hinge on final-week turnout among conservative and center-right blocs, resolution of pending candidacy challenges, and any remaining debates or endorsements that consolidate preferences ahead of the dual-vote system.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$36,169End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows a tight four-way contest for Paraná's two Senate seats on October 4, with Deltan Dallagnol, Alexandre Curi, Filipe Barros, and Gleisi Hoffmann separated by just a few points within the margin of error. This positioning sustains elevated implied probabilities for multiple candidates finishing second, as each draws distinct regional and ideological support while undecided voters remain high. The recent TSE suspension of Dallagnol's campaign activities, while leaving his name on the ballot, adds uncertainty that could shift late momentum. Further separation may hinge on final-week turnout among conservative and center-right blocs, resolution of pending candidacy challenges, and any remaining debates or endorsements that consolidate preferences ahead of the dual-vote system.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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