Recent polls from late August 2026, including Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest surveys, show Rui Costa (PT) leading Senate voting intentions in Bahia ahead of incumbent Jaques Wagner (PT), with opposition figures João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) trailing further behind in consolidated scenarios. Voters select two distinct candidates for the two seats up for election on October 4, which has positioned Wagner as the consensus second-place finisher in trader assessments. Wagner’s incumbency and established PT base provide a buffer despite investigations linked to the Banco Master case that raised his rejection levels earlier in the cycle. High shares of undecided and blank/null voters sustain some uncertainty around final ordering among lower-polling contenders, though current data indicate limited momentum for shifts before voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJaques Wagner 63%
João Roma 24.8%
Rui Costa 10.5%
Angelo Coronel 6.0%
$37,566 Vol.
$37,566 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jaques Wagner
63%
João Roma
25%
Rui Costa
11%
Angelo Coronel
6%
Carlos Sodré
<1%
Gregorio Gould
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
<1%
Marcelo Millet
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
<1%
Professora Delliana
<1%
Jaques Wagner 63%
João Roma 24.8%
Rui Costa 10.5%
Angelo Coronel 6.0%
$37,566 Vol.
$37,566 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jaques Wagner
$25,137 Vol.
63%
João Roma
$1,613 Vol.
25%
Rui Costa
$5,081 Vol.
11%
Angelo Coronel
$1,870 Vol.
6%
Carlos Sodré
$729 Vol.
<1%
Gregorio Gould
$570 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
$488 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Millet
$673 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
$654 Vol.
<1%
Professora Delliana
$751 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls from late August 2026, including Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest surveys, show Rui Costa (PT) leading Senate voting intentions in Bahia ahead of incumbent Jaques Wagner (PT), with opposition figures João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) trailing further behind in consolidated scenarios. Voters select two distinct candidates for the two seats up for election on October 4, which has positioned Wagner as the consensus second-place finisher in trader assessments. Wagner’s incumbency and established PT base provide a buffer despite investigations linked to the Banco Master case that raised his rejection levels earlier in the cycle. High shares of undecided and blank/null voters sustain some uncertainty around final ordering among lower-polling contenders, though current data indicate limited momentum for shifts before voting.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ET
Volume
$37,566End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls from late August 2026, including Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest surveys, show Rui Costa (PT) leading Senate voting intentions in Bahia ahead of incumbent Jaques Wagner (PT), with opposition figures João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) trailing further behind in consolidated scenarios. Voters select two distinct candidates for the two seats up for election on October 4, which has positioned Wagner as the consensus second-place finisher in trader assessments. Wagner’s incumbency and established PT base provide a buffer despite investigations linked to the Banco Master case that raised his rejection levels earlier in the cycle. High shares of undecided and blank/null voters sustain some uncertainty around final ordering among lower-polling contenders, though current data indicate limited momentum for shifts before voting.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$37,566End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from late August 2026, including Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest surveys, show Rui Costa (PT) leading Senate voting intentions in Bahia ahead of incumbent Jaques Wagner (PT), with opposition figures João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) trailing further behind in consolidated scenarios. Voters select two distinct candidates for the two seats up for election on October 4, which has positioned Wagner as the consensus second-place finisher in trader assessments. Wagner’s incumbency and established PT base provide a buffer despite investigations linked to the Banco Master case that raised his rejection levels earlier in the cycle. High shares of undecided and blank/null voters sustain some uncertainty around final ordering among lower-polling contenders, though current data indicate limited momentum for shifts before voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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