Skip to main content
icon for Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?
Tech·Big Tech

Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?

icon for Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?
Tech·Big Tech

Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?

99% chance
Polymarket

$175,294 Vol.

99% chance
Polymarket

$175,294 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s long-standing practice of annual fall iPhone releases, following the iPhone 17 series in 2025, underpins the near-certain 98.6% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Confirmed supplier statements from Pegatron and others, alongside Apple’s scheduled September 9 keynote, show the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable Ultra models on track for announcement and sales later that month despite memory and chip shortages. This split-launch strategy prioritizes premium devices while shifting base models to early 2027, yet it still delivers multiple iPhone 18-branded products within the calendar year. Realistic disruptions remain limited to further supply-chain slippage or unforeseen technical setbacks, as no regulatory or major production halts have emerged to threaten the overall cycle.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$175,294
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s long-standing practice of annual fall iPhone releases, following the iPhone 17 series in 2025, underpins the near-certain 98.6% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Confirmed supplier statements from Pegatron and others, alongside Apple’s scheduled September 9 keynote, show the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable Ultra models on track for announcement and sales later that month despite memory and chip shortages. This split-launch strategy prioritizes premium devices while shifting base models to early 2027, yet it still delivers multiple iPhone 18-branded products within the calendar year. Realistic disruptions remain limited to further supply-chain slippage or unforeseen technical setbacks, as no regulatory or major production halts have emerged to threaten the overall cycle.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$175,294
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

icon for Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

94%
icon for Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027?

Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027?

6%
icon for Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026?

Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026?

35%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 99% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 99¢, the market collectively assigns a 99% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?" has generated $175.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?" is 99% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 99% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.