With the 2026 midterms only weeks away, the 98.9% trader consensus on Republicans retaining House majority reflects the structural barriers to altering chamber control outside regular elections. Special elections, deaths, resignations, or party switches would need to occur at an unprecedented scale in the remaining window to shift the balance, an outcome with no recent precedent in comparable cycles. Current composition shows no active vacancies or procedural moves capable of producing such a flip before November. Historical base rates for pre-midterm majority changes remain near zero absent extraordinary events. Late developments like coordinated resignations or legal disqualifications could theoretically alter the path, though none appear imminent.